Woohoo! We already have our first retirement in a competitive House district for the 2016 elections—and it's good news for the blue team. GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick had long promised to limit himself to four terms in Congress, and shortly after winning re-election last week, he reaffirmed his pledge. That opens up the swingy 8th District, which Barack Obama carried 53-46 in 2008 but lost by just one tenth of one percent in 2012, 49.4 to 49.3.I think this is a great opportunity. I think this article gets the facts of the situation right. I wouldn't agree that the district wasn't radically changed. Philadelphia used to be part of this district (well, a part of Philadelphia) and it's out now. The seat moved 9% in 2012 from 2008. Does it make it unwinnable? No, you can never make Bucks County unwinnable for either party. We just have to understand the reality of gerrymandering in Pennsylvania:Republicans tried to shore up this suburban Philadelphia seat during the last round of redistricting, but they didn't make dramatic changes; under the old lines, Obama won in 2008 by a slightly wider 54-45 spread. That means this district will be hotly contested in two years' time, especially when Democrats can expect to receive a boost from presidential-year turnout.
Finally, all of the analysts quoted above agree that there truly were some egregious partisan gerrymanders that affected 2012 results. For instance, in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia, Republican candidates won between 49 and 53 percent of the House vote in each state, yet each state's Congressional delegation ended up about 70 percent Republican. States such as Michigan and Florida (on the GOP side) and Illinois and Maryland (on the Democratic side) are also frequently pointed to as being gerrymandered.I think this is a race worth fighting. I just don't want people to think we're favored for certain.
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