The NCAA Football Playoff Decision: My Reaction

The NCAA Football playoff has been announced, and it's caused plenty of controversy. TCU was dropped from #3 to #6, and out of the playoff, after a 50 point win. Baylor, who beat TCU and beat a top ten team on Saturday, missed too. A team who was behind them both got in.

First, let me say that this is not my system of choice. I would give the "power five" (SEC, ACC, PAC-12, Big Ten, and Big 12) an automatic bid each, and then have three chosen "wild cards" based on some form of criteria, for an eight team field. With that said, I don't think this committee got anything wrong, under this format.

Alabama is the best team in the country, and won the best conference, and they got in with the top seed. Florida State is the reigning champs, won their league, hasn't lost in two years, and they got in too. Oregon is the team everyone loves to watch, they won the PAC-12, they've been ranked near the top all year, and they're in. One of these three teams is likely to win the national title. They all have a shot to. No one got snubbed who I think can win.

Now, the fourth spot counts though, and you're giving one team a shot to surprise us. I would have given it to Baylor. They beat TCU, the best win of any of the three teams, and I think the Big 12 is a little better than the Big Ten this year. With that said, Ohio State is white hot right now, winning three games against ranked teams, away from home, late in the season. They just beat Wisconsin 59-0 on Saturday with their third quarterback. They're a bigger draw than the other two teams. In a group that is pretty close, picking the hottest team with the proven coach, who happens to be the "big market" team, is fine. It wasn't my choice, but it was probably my second choice.

The reality is that TCU and Baylor shared their conference title, and both took a loss this year. Sure, so did Ohio State, but that left it all up to chance. The committee made a choice. I can't knock the choice, and I don't feel a ton of sympathy for the "almost in's."

For the record, my prediction is Alabama crushing Ohio State, Florida State edging out Oregon, and Alabama ending Jameis' magic run in the title game.

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Snap NCAA Playoff Opinion

As I write this, we now know all the major conference champions, and all of the meaningful football is done to decide the playoff (Ohio State is up 52-0 on Wisconsin in the 4th, nothing there will change my mind). So, now what?

Florida State has won the ACC and finished 13-0, a second straight undefeated season. Alabama has won the toughest conference in college football, demolishing Missouri to win the SEC, finishing 12-1. Oregon went out and handled a very good Arizona team with no problems to win the PAC-12. As stated above, Ohio State humiliated Wisconsin to win the Big Ten tonight. TCU killed Iowa State to get their share of the Big-12 title, and Baylor won an impressive win over #9 Kansas State to win their half of the title. Really, there's no one else to even consider for the playoff. So, who's where?

First off, I'll predict that Alabama, Oregon, TCU, and Florida State go in, as is currently the case. Baylor and Ohio State will be the two left out to cry about it, and both have a good case. With that said, if you are betting your own money on this, bet on the committee to stand by their rankings, since all four of these teams won. This is less my opinion, and more a bow to reality.

So, who would I put in amongst these six possibilities? First would be the defending National Champions, 2014 ACC Champions, and last major undefeated, Florida State. Are they the best, or most impressive team this year? No. But they did just beat a Georgia Tech team for their conference title and a second straight undefeated season, a team that beat SEC-power Georgia, last week. Florida State should be in with no discussion whatsoever. It's fine if you hate Jameis Winston, I do too, but you don't hold his team out of the playoffs for off-field reasons. If he were not allowed to play, I may feel an iota differently, but even then, FSU gets to defend their crown.

Next is Alabama, without question. The Crimson Tide have been the dominant team in the nation over the last decade, winning just two years ago. They also just won the best conference in the nation, beat the previously #1 team, and generally are the most impressive team in the country. Alabama is an absolute lock to make it, and they should be. The SEC Champions should always be if the conference stays like this.

That leaves Oregon, TCU, Baylor, and Ohio State to consider for the other two slots. Now, I know everyone gives Oregon a spot in the playoff, and I would probably ultimately pick them, but why are they a lock? The PAC-12 Champions do have a loss and all. They're fun to watch, and score a lot, which is good for ratings, but are they really a lock? I would put them in, in no small part because I think the PAC-12 is a better conference than the Big Ten or Big-12 this year, and Oregon won it. I also give them a lot of credit for several top-25 wins, including this week's win over Arizona. While I think their lock status going into this week was a bit much, Oregon is absolutely the third team in.

So, one spot left, and I believe TCU will get it, because everyone fell in love with them after their win over Kansas State. TCU gets a lot of credit for that win, and a win over Oklahoma that looked better at the time, a win over Oklahoma State that looked better at the time, and a tight win over West Virginia, who is not a bad team. TCU's argument is that the Minnesota win was better than they got credit for, and lines up with their wins over Oklahoma, K-State, and West Virginia as quality wins, and their one loss was a quality one to Baylor.

If Baylor's resume seems similar, it is. Obviously the TCU win is the crown jewel on their argument, and deservedly so. They had a smashing victory over Oklahoma and a solid victory tonight over K-State to add to that. Baylor did have a two touchdown loss at WVU (who TCU barely beat too), and several close calls that don't help. Their out-of-conference schedule included no one as good as Minnesota either. For all that though, they're co-champs of the conference with TCU, and beat them head-to-head. It's hard to discount that.

This leaves Ohio State as your last option, who just beat Wisconsin 59-0. This team is on quarterback #3 since Spring practices, and has continued to win anyway. Besides tonight, their most impressive victory was over Michigan State on the road, followed up closely by their road win at Minnesota. That's three impressive non-home wins, but you can't totally discount a bad home loss to Virginia Tech, or struggling with a mediocre Penn State. Would Ohio State possibly be the most dangerous team to play right now? Yes. They're hot right now. Is their overall resume better than the co-champs of the Big-12? Ten years ago, yes, but the Big Ten doesn't get the love it used to. I'd be really tempted to put them in anyway.

If it were my vote, Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, and Baylor would get in. While Ohio State is the best of the three today, and TCU had a better overall resume than Baylor, there's no way I could ignore the on-the-field game they played. That's just my opinion, but that's who I'd put in.

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