Disappointment in the Present, Hope in the Future as an Eagles Fan

After their season ending 34-26 win in New Jersey over the Giants, Jeffrey Lurie's presser just rubbed me the wrong way. It's like he doesn't get it- 10-6 and being competitive isn't good enough. The Eagles are not only watching the playoffs, but they were victimized by the hated Dallas Cowboys, and then Washington, to be prevented from the post-season. This is going to be a long, hard off-season for Eagles fans with memories of Dez Bryant killing them in Philly running through their heads. Lurie, like he did for much of the Reid era, seemed to be explaining away a disappointing ending, again. The fans want a parade, and so does he, but the fans want it more.

The truth is, the Eagles are still not really contenders, despite Chip Kelly's 20-12 record so far as head coach in two seasons. This season, the Eagles had a win over Dallas, a win over Indianapolis, a win over Carolina, and a win over Houston that can now be looked back on and called decent victories (albeit, Carolina ended up 7-8-1, even if they're in the post-season). More often than not though, they failed the big tests. San Francisco handled them despite their own problems this year, as did the Arizona Cardinals team that is playoff bound despite going through all of their QB's. Green Bay crushed them in Lambeau, and Seattle came into Philadelphia and let them know this isn't their year. Still though after those four losses, there was still a solid opportunity at the playoffs. Then the team totally dropped the ball against Dallas, coming out mentally unprepared and physically overmatched in some spots. The Washington loss was just a snow-ball effect to be honest, but the awful loss sent them to their season-ending grave. The team just was a little short.

With that said, this team has had back-to-back ten win seasons and is a top six NFC team, even if they aren't going to the playoffs (Carolina is only in by winning their division). They score a lot of points and their defense on the whole improved. Their special teams were much better than not. In short, they're not a bad team. They're a 20-12 team the last two years that needs to fill a few holes. They are both a few players from being a 12 win team, and a few mistakes from being an 8 win team.  Still, they are a far cry from the 4-12 team Chip inherited.

This is an off-season that can go either way though. Their quarterback play was simply not good enough in 2014, whether you want to discuss Nick Foles or Mark Sanchez. This doesn't mean that Foles can't be given another shot in 2015 if the Birds can't get a franchise quarterback in this off-season, but it means it's an area of concern. Jeremy Maclin is a free agent and Shady McCoy goes into 2015 with just $1 million remaining on his deal, but at an $11 million cap hit, so he'll probably need a new deal. Herremans injury on the line probably scares me the most (in terms of needing an actual replacement), but the line had a lot more injuries, so there are needs there. All of this is just offense, and frankly the defense needs a lot more than that. They absolutely need to re-tool the secondary, needing at least a replacement for Bradley Fletcher, and probably Nate Allen as well, if not all four starters. Demeco Ryans injury issues put middle linebacker in question for next season as well, and the failings of last year's top pick make another pass rusher something worth considering.

Chip has been more successful than not, but his second year did leave more questions than his first. The secondary that hurt them so bad in year one was worse in year two. His draft wasn't terrible, but it wasn't good enough either. On the other hand Jenkins and Sproles were steals, so he did some things right. This just wasn't the wild success of year one.

I'm not totally down on this season though despite the failings. The Eagles won ten games like I figured they would in the pre-season. They did so despite losing their starting quarterback for the second half of the season. They did so despite losing DeSean Jackson. They did so despite a tough schedule. Unfortunately, Dallas was better than we thought. Hopefully a strong off-season, strong draft, and good workouts in the off-season improve this team. They have a laundry list of needs to improve, but the good news is that they are doing that as a ten win team, not as a four win team like two years ago.

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And Just Like That, It All Goes Dark for the Eagles

Theoretically, the Cowboys could lose later to the Colts, and lose again to the Redskins next week. Theoretically, if that happens, the Eagles could beat the Giants and make the playoffs. Just as plausible though is Dallas winning today, and next week for that matter, and the Eagles not winning in the Meadowlands next week either, and finishing 9-7. In fact, let's not say "just as plausible," because frankly it's more so. The Eagles have lost three in a row this December, and are folding the tents.

There is a bit of me that wants to say "I told you so," but I really don't too- I do like this team, and they are really the only halfway hopeful thing in Philadelphia sports right now. I'll be polite and say I took some "flack" on Twitter for daring to suggest this team didn't have the ingredients to build a championship team with, and well, yeah. The Eagles are 19-12 under Chip Kelly, which is good, but it appears that they'll take a step backwards in year two. DeSean Jackson was absolutely loving that he got to drive a stake into the Eagles hearts in DC yesterday, and regardless of how you feel about the move to run him out of town, you really can't blame him much for that.

Now that we've all come down from the high that was last year, here's some reality-

• No quarterback played well enough at any point this season to attach your dreams too much to them. Foles was decent, and Sanchez had his moments, but you're not mistaking them for Rodgers, Brady, Manning, or even Russell Wilson.
• The Eagles have to replace, at a minimum, their cornerbacks by next season, and should have before this season. This wasn't a strength last season, and it got worse this year. The Eagles had plenty of cap room to do it with, and just didn't. It bit them. They probably would be best off with an upgrade at one of the safety spots too, though it's a little less of an issue.
• Last year's draft haunts them a bit, particularly Marcus Smith, who didn't have a big role this season after being the 26th overall pick last year. It's totally fair to ask what the Eagles were doing there, especially if you give them credit for the brilliance of picking Matthews in the second round.
• The offensive line was generally good this season, particularly when healthy, but could use a depth infusion at the least, if not a replacement for Todd Herremans. Herremans has played well in Philadelphia, but he's 32, and on the injured reserve, and they've had some issues without him. I wouldn't mind adding a little depth on the offensive line.
• While Maclin and Matthews had good years, and Ertz broke out yesterday, the Eagles will need to re-tool a bit in the receiving corps. To be fair, with what Jackson would have received next season, they'd be cutting him this off-season and going through this anyway, but they still need some upgrades.
• In general, if Chip wants to run the team the way he does, the defense has to be upgraded.

With all of that said, I'll acknowledge this is a better situation than the 4-12 team he took over. Let's not kid ourselves though- they lost to Seattle, Arizona, Green Bay, and Dallas, four of the five playoff teams they faced this season, and they went 2-5 against teams with seven wins or better. This team is not "just a secondary" away. They're not yet competitive with the big boys. That's obvious to anyone who watched the games this year.

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A Disgusting Loss for the Eagles

Fourteen weeks ago, I would have told you the Eagles weren't going to win the Super Bowl, or the NFC for that matter. With that said, when you're 9-4, and playing Dallas for first place in week fifteen, talk about winning the championship or not goes to the background. The only goal is to ruin Dallas' season, and win the division over them with a big win tonight. We'll talk about the playoffs after.

It was all there for the Eagles, and now it's all not. With a win, they would have went to 10-4, with two games against terrible teams in front of them, a commanding lead by being perfect in the division, and of course having swept Dallas. Now they have none of that. Sure, the 9-5 Eagles can win the division by sweeping Washington and New York, if Dallas loses a game, but that's a big if. Dallas will play an Indianapolis team at home next week, a team that clinched their division today and will have a difficult time moving up a spot. Then they play Washington. One of them has to beat Dallas for there to even be a discussion.

The Eagles currently are seventh in the NFC, or the first team out. Right now Seattle and Green Bay are the Wild Cards, both of whom beat the Eagles this year. The Eagles have lost two straight, and not played well in either. The secondary was bad tonight, no shock, and the QB play remains suspect no matter who's in. You have to worry that this two game losing streak tailspins next week in a must-win game.

On the bright side, I should be saying they are in position to win 11 games, can still win the division, and can still make the playoffs. All of that's true. Tomorrow I'll think that way. Tonight, I'm just angry, because losing to Dallas in Philadelphia is the worst thing imaginable any season.

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When Does Reality Set In (Or Does It Not Matter?)?

At some point in the second quarter, it became apparent to me that my pre-game prediction (A Seattle 20-10 win over the Eagles) would come true, and that this was not the day the Eagles showed up and arrived as a Super Bowl contender. The defending champions were shutting down the Eagles running attack and passing attack, and generally beating our offensive line. The Eagles just couldn't move the ball, and that was clear throughout the 24-14 loss. At that same point I realized that, I realized two other things:

1. No matter how coldly realistic I am about this franchise, dammit, I want them to win games like this, and win a title.
2. This isn't going to be the year.

The Eagles did not lose to Seattle because of Mark Sanchez, or because of a particular defensive back, or a specific injury, or even one player choking. They lost because Seattle is better. They did a good job containing Marshawn Lynch, and even did enough to keep the score respectable and even attainable throughout. They just weren't as good, and that was shown throughout the game. It's not that they're bad, not at all, it's that Seattle remains a monster of a team to beat in games that matter (as all of them do at this time of year).

The Eagles are a 9-4 team, and with three games to go, could finish 12-4 and win the NFC East. That's very good. Arizona won their tenth game though today, and Green Bay could do the same tomorrow. The Eagles are likely to start week 15 behind Green Bay and Arizona, and tied with the same record as Detroit, Dallas, and Seattle. They will need no less than two of the final three to win the NFC East, and probably the same to win a Wild Card. Even if they reach the playoffs, Green Bay and Seattle, both of whom handled them, are likely in good position to finish one and two if they win out, and Arizona, who also beat them, could also finish in those spots. The Eagles are very, very unlikely to win the NFC, unlikely to reach the NFC title game, will struggle to win a playoff game, could face a tough first round match-up again, and could possibly not even get in if they lose to Dallas. Sure, they should win at least 11 games, but that might not get them a whole lot of good luck.

Let's be clear though, they won ten games a year ago, and four games two years ago, so they've come a long way. They need to improve to compete with the Seattles and Green Bays of the world, but they are on the right track. That's a great place to be two years after picking in the top five.

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Not Contenders.

If you want to use Mark Sanchez as an excuse for why the Packers blew the Eagles out of the stadium, go ahead. You're dead wrong, but go ahead. The Packers are simply a better football team, without question, and proved it in every area of the football game. If you want to make up excuses though, go ahead.

Mark Sanchez never had a chance. He was running for his life from the get-go, and never had a shot to get going. The running game was irrelevant because it was a blow out so fast. The secondary stunk, but the front seven weren't that good either. The kicking game? No.

Nick Foles wouldn't have made any difference out there. The Eagles just don't belong in a big game against Aaron Rodgers and the crew over there, especially on the road. If the NFC goes through Green Bay, you can forget it now.

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Big Game Ahead

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Are the Eagles Contenders, Week Ten Edition?

The Eagles are 7-2. The Eagles are in first place. The Eagles just stomped the lifeless Panthers out of the building. Their offense looked great. Their defense looked awesome too. They're basically one game out of home-field. Can they win the title this year?

In my view, it's not likely, but I'm not closing the door. The defense is improving, the offense is good, and it's getting healthier. Right now, the Eagles are in a horse-race for the second seed. If they are a bye team, and have home field in the divisional round, I can see a run. If not, I still think they'll come up a little short.

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