Why Mitt Romney Matters

The good old days in the GOP?

Well, Mitt Romney is probably running for President, while his running-mate is not. This isn't completely shocking, as we had heard rumors of a possible return to the trail for Romney for a few weeks now. This is his third run for the White House, the first ending after two second place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2008, and a general election loss in 2012.

This sets up a showdown with Jeb Bush, the brother of the last Republican President, for control of the "establishment" wing of the party. Bush can probably shut other "establishment" figures like Chris Christie's fundraising down, but in the case of Romney, that's much harder. Romney has deep ties now to a national donors list that have been with him through two elections. Romney also has deep pockets and hundreds of millions of his own dollars. In other words, he's the one guy Bush can't muscle.

Romney received 206 electoral votes, just 64 short of the White House in our last election. He's now vowing to take on Jeb Bush from his right in the 2016 election. He is a viable national figure who has the personal finances to run a serious race. His entrance slows down the narrative of Bush being coronated, and it puts all the issues and narratives from 2012 on the table. In short, the GOP is going to have to confront not only the demons of their last President, but also of their last nominee. That's gotta be a bit uncomfortable for Republicans.

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Go For It, Mitt

Not what Jeb wants to hear:

Mitt Romney, who has been encouraged by his allies to consider another run for the White House, will meet with several of his former political advisers for a private dinner in California, the Washington Post reports.

Now I know what you're thinking- why the hell would Jeb care what the 2012 runner-up is doing. You're kinda right. Kinda. For all the talk about Romney's problems with conservatives, he ended up as the Republican nominee in 2012, right? The guy is at very least formidable, and could force Jeb to have to play all in for Iowa, since Romney would be very tough in New Hampshire.

Forget all of that though, Romney is the most dangerous candidate in the GOP for Jeb for other reasons. While Jeb can snuff out a Chris Christie run at the donor stage, or anyone else for that matter, Romney is someone he can't. For one, yes, Romney has a built-in cadre of donors who will stick with him now even against Jeb. Even if he didn't though, Romney is unique for other reasons too- Romney could go with no other donors at all. Romney could simply write himself a $100 million check to start, and run the primaries. Literally no one can stop him. If he wants the White House, he can run a well-financed campaign to try and do it.

Mitt Romney is the one Republican in the country who can go muscle for muscle with the Bush political machine. He might be the only person the party has who can. If he wants a legacy of being that guy, he can have it, even if he may not be able to win the White House. So I say go for it, if you want it, Mitt.

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Thought of the Week- We Haven't Changed That Much Since 2000

One of the popular talking points since Jeb Bush got into the Presidential race (let's be honest, he's in) has been that he "can't win." The Republican base "hates dynasties," he's "too Wall Street," and people "remember his brother's Presidency." We've heard all of these before, with slight variations (it was dad, not brother then.), in 2000 when George W. Bush got into the race for President. On the back end of a Democratic Presidency, and with all of Bush's supposed pitfalls, he wasn't going to make it to the White House, because something was going to stop him. Something.

American politics has changed a bit in the last fifteen years, but the basic tenets are the same. In a Republican Primary, being able to lock down the big-business money is paramount, and the Bush family is good at it. Jeb Bush will secure some major donors, and unite the business Republican community with a mix of religious and military Republicans who want similar policy outcomes. He'll bring back some veterans of both his and his brother's victorious past campaigns, and put together a good staff. He'll run a strong campaign.

The other piece of this is that the further right-leaning elements of the Republican Party will not be able to unite quickly in the process behind another candidate. Some will want Rand Paul, others Ted Cruz, others yet Ben Carson. Jeb will be able to exploit that, provided he doesn't have a strong establishment opponent (which would have to be Romney or Christie, if they can do it). The same thing happened in 2000.

None of this is to say that Bush will win the Republican Nomination, let alone the White House. The internet nature of American politics now is different than his last run for office in 2002, or his brother's 2004 Presidential win. The Republican Party is more conservative than it was in 2000. His brother actually left office less popular than his dad did, which could be a real strain on his campaign.  His business wing funders are less in step with the party's voters (think immigration here) than they were in 2000 too. Even if he survives all of that, Hillary Clinton appears to be a stronger candidate than Al Gore was in 2000, and the left is much different than it was in 2000 too. Lots of things can derail Jeb.

Even so, don't tell me that Jeb Bush "can't" win in 2016. I obviously hope he doesn't, and I obviously wouldn't mind the GOP nominating someone crazier, but I'm not going to rule out something that fairly obviously could happen. There is a real possibility that there could be a third Bush Presidency. If that doesn't motivate you on the left, I don't know what does.

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Why Jeb Bush is Thinking About Running for President

Let's say you were a Republican who wanted to be President. Let's say your brother was the last Republican President. Let's say he left unpopular, and made it impossible for you to run the last two times. So you had to sit, out of national politics for nearly ten years since you were last Governor of Florida. One day you wake up though, and your brother's successor is in his final two years, and the field is about to form for your party's nomination to replace him. That field looks like:

• A Texas Senator who the entire Senate GOP Caucus hates, who is an extremist, who caused a shutdown, and who probably can't win.
• A former Pennsylvania Senator who lost his re-election by twenty points and who once slept in his bed with a dead fetus.
• A neurosurgeon who compares health care plans for the uninsured to Nazi Germany.
• The last guy who lost for President in a general election, by millions of votes, a hundred plus electoral votes, and over 5%.
• A Tony Soprano-wannabe, bully of a Governor from New Jersey who the base absolutely hates, and who will probably see members of his administration indicted for closing the George Washington Bridge for politics.
• Donald Trump says he wants in.
• A Kentucky Senator who is a crazy right-wing libertarian who wants to "audit the Fed," and return to the gold standard, clinging to a base that got his father nowhere in his two presidential runs, and who scares the hell out of the right-wing on defense issues.
• The outgoing Texas Governor who made a fool of himself in the last primaries for President and who was once your brother's lieutenant governor.
• The guy who wanted to turn Medicare into vouchers, who lost the 2012 election as the Vice-Presidential nominee, and who wants to turn Medicaid into a voucher program.

You get the point, right?

So Jeb Bush is looking at this clown-show of a Presidential field, and saying to himself, I have to be able to beat these guys. He's basically right, on paper, and I get his rationale for a run. I think he may be underestimating the problems he'll face in this primary, but even so, it's winnable. I mean, His dad beat the "conservatives" in 1988. Bob Dole did the same in 1996. John McCain did in 2008. Mitt Romney did in 2012. The "establishment" pick usually wins. It makes sense that he thinks he can do it, particularly with his family's record in these fights. I still think  his ability to do this is questionable though.

Bush seems to have a realistic view on his chances. He sees a weak field, and he's taking them on. He's entering early specifically so he can maximize his one big advantage- fundraising. He knows that getting in early might muscle out Christie and Romney, his chief competitors for money, and make his run much easier. Frankly though, if he can't do this, he shouldn't even bother.

The GOP base is crazier and more motivated than ever. The only way someone interested in governing might win the nomination would be to roll the other "establishment" guys, and be able to smash his Tea Party opposition to pieces.  Jeb won't be able to do this easily. He'll be called a RINO, Clinton-lite, and all kinds of other conservative insults. It's worth the shot, but frankly the only way I think he can pull this off is to make himself unelectable by taking crazy positions. He seems resistant to that. I don't see him becoming the third Bush to reach office.

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The Bush Family is Not the Clinton Family

With Jeb Bush saying he's thinking about running for President, again, inevitably the press had to say and write something nonsensical. In this case, it was comparing the Bush Family to the Clinton Family, and talking about them both as "dynasties." This is pretty ridiculous. In fact, it's really ridiculous. They really don't have anything in common. A few reasons why:

1. The Clintons are in their first generation. Bill came from basically nothing politically, and Hillary is not the daughter of a high office holder. George W. and Jeb are the son of a President, who's father-in-law was a Senator. 
2. Similarly, the Clintons are a couple who have built a political brand, not the offspring of a man who made it to the Presidency.
3. They sort of ran against each other in an election that was actually quite consequential.
4. Bill Clinton lead the nation through a decade of unmatched growth, and rising wages for our middle and lower classes, as well as over 20 million jobs created. George W. Bush left office in the midst of a complete economic meltdown.
5. Bill Clinton oversaw a period of relative peace. That's not the same as the Bush family's record.

In other words- no, these are not two "equal dynasties." Just stop now. 

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Jeb Bush Wants to be President (and is doing something about it?)

Well, the 2016 election is now under way:

I am excited to announce I will actively explore the possibility of running for President of the United States: https://t.co/luY4lCF2cA.
— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) December 16, 2014

I just want to know how one "inactively" explores the possibility of running for President of the United States? What does this even mean? It's not an announcement that he's in the race, or even that he's in the exploratory phase, per se. I guess it's just one of like 15 times we'll get to see him make news? I'm not sure.

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