Why Jeb Bush is Thinking About Running for President

Let's say you were a Republican who wanted to be President. Let's say your brother was the last Republican President. Let's say he left unpopular, and made it impossible for you to run the last two times. So you had to sit, out of national politics for nearly ten years since you were last Governor of Florida. One day you wake up though, and your brother's successor is in his final two years, and the field is about to form for your party's nomination to replace him. That field looks like:

• A Texas Senator who the entire Senate GOP Caucus hates, who is an extremist, who caused a shutdown, and who probably can't win.
• A former Pennsylvania Senator who lost his re-election by twenty points and who once slept in his bed with a dead fetus.
• A neurosurgeon who compares health care plans for the uninsured to Nazi Germany.
• The last guy who lost for President in a general election, by millions of votes, a hundred plus electoral votes, and over 5%.
• A Tony Soprano-wannabe, bully of a Governor from New Jersey who the base absolutely hates, and who will probably see members of his administration indicted for closing the George Washington Bridge for politics.
• Donald Trump says he wants in.
• A Kentucky Senator who is a crazy right-wing libertarian who wants to "audit the Fed," and return to the gold standard, clinging to a base that got his father nowhere in his two presidential runs, and who scares the hell out of the right-wing on defense issues.
• The outgoing Texas Governor who made a fool of himself in the last primaries for President and who was once your brother's lieutenant governor.
• The guy who wanted to turn Medicare into vouchers, who lost the 2012 election as the Vice-Presidential nominee, and who wants to turn Medicaid into a voucher program.

You get the point, right?

So Jeb Bush is looking at this clown-show of a Presidential field, and saying to himself, I have to be able to beat these guys. He's basically right, on paper, and I get his rationale for a run. I think he may be underestimating the problems he'll face in this primary, but even so, it's winnable. I mean, His dad beat the "conservatives" in 1988. Bob Dole did the same in 1996. John McCain did in 2008. Mitt Romney did in 2012. The "establishment" pick usually wins. It makes sense that he thinks he can do it, particularly with his family's record in these fights. I still think  his ability to do this is questionable though.

Bush seems to have a realistic view on his chances. He sees a weak field, and he's taking them on. He's entering early specifically so he can maximize his one big advantage- fundraising. He knows that getting in early might muscle out Christie and Romney, his chief competitors for money, and make his run much easier. Frankly though, if he can't do this, he shouldn't even bother.

The GOP base is crazier and more motivated than ever. The only way someone interested in governing might win the nomination would be to roll the other "establishment" guys, and be able to smash his Tea Party opposition to pieces.  Jeb won't be able to do this easily. He'll be called a RINO, Clinton-lite, and all kinds of other conservative insults. It's worth the shot, but frankly the only way I think he can pull this off is to make himself unelectable by taking crazy positions. He seems resistant to that. I don't see him becoming the third Bush to reach office.