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Showing posts with label 2016 Congressional races. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016 Congressional races. Show all posts

Friday, January 16, 2015

Will Democrats Need a New Leader in 2017?

Posted on 6:00 AM by whitehate
Ten days ago, Senator Harry Reid lost his grip on the Senate Majority Leadership. In 2016, he will have to once again defend his seat. Reid is absolutely a political survivor. However, in 2014, the popular Republican Governor won a huge re-election and flipped the state legislature. So how does this play?
“Remarkably, Reid has only won more than 51.0% of the vote once, cruising to victory with 61.1% in 2004. Otherwise, his percentages have been very low for a winner — 50.0% in 1986, 51.0% in 1992, 47.9% in 1998, and 50.3% in 2010.”
Those are not huge numbers. With that said, Nevada was a fairly red-state until recent years, and in a Presidential year could give Reid an assist in sticking around. I really think Reid's survival right now would appear to come down to who his opponent is.
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Posted in 2016 Congressional races, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid | No comments

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Newsom Out, Harris In for California Senate

Posted on 3:30 AM by whitehate
California Lt. Governor and former San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Kamala Harris are two the best up-and-coming politicians in the largest state in the country. They also share a lot of political staff and connections. I'm not shocked that Newsom is staying out of the 2016 Senate race, and Harris is getting in. They couldn't both really run, so only one could now. Newsom probably wants the Governor's job, the next step up for him, which will be available in 2018 (as might be the other U.S. Senate seat in the state). Only one could run now, and Harris is the one who both wants the seat, and has the momentum.

This does not mean that she will cruise into the seat. Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is considering a run, and billionaire Tom Steyer is planning on running. All of this is prelude of course, as 2018 will bring about a Governor's race that Newsom is essentially in, and a potential Senate race if Diane Feinstein passes on another run. This may be the most expensive primary for a U.S. Senate race ever, but it may not even compare to what's next in California.
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Posted in 2016 California Senate Race, 2016 Congressional races, California Attorney General Kamala Harris, California Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom | No comments

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Sad Day for America

Posted on 11:00 PM by whitehate

Barbara Boxer has been a great Senator. Part of that is representing a progressive state, and part of that is simply being a great representative of the people. Senator Boxer has been able to use her talents to fight for those who most needed it.

Her successor is an open question. Immediately, the names Villaraigosa, Newsom, and Harris will be discussed. Villaraigosa, the former LA Mayor, has said he would rather be Governor in the past, and may just wait for the open seat there. Newsom, the Lt. Governor and former San Francisco Mayor, seems like a perfect fit to replace the staunch progressive Boxer. Harris is the Attorney General of the state, and is extremely popular with Democratic interest groups all over the map. I doubt Nancy Pelosi will want the seat, but you have to hold out that possibility, as well as former Labor Secretary and Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis. Honestly, every name I just mentioned would be great as a Senator, so the electoral impact is minor. The impact in the Senate though of losing a champion like Boxer is without measure though.
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Posted in 2016 Congressional races, Senator Barbara Boxer | No comments

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

The Low-Hanging Fruit: Which Republican Seats Can Be Held Accountable in 2016

Posted on 9:00 PM by whitehate
The 112th and 113th Congress are the least productive two Congresses ever, and the 114th will be even worse, thanks to Republican control. Fortunately, a Congress only lasts two years, and then you get a new one. Democrats in 2016 will need four seats in the Senate, with the White House, and 30 seats in the House to take back control. Where to start?

I have a few ideas in mind for Democrats to make gains in 2016. Do I have 34 ideas? Not yet. These are some good spots to start in though:

  • Utah 4: This one will hurt Republicans pretty hard. Mia Love, their media darling Congresswoman representing part of the Salt Lake City area of Utah won her 2014 election with a late surge over Doug Owens, winning by just over 4,000 votes. She ran a lackluster race, and Owens can beat her in 2016 with a good campaign.
  • Pennsylvania 8: With Congressman Fitzpatrick retiring, Democrats should take a real stab at the Bucks County seat. State Rep. Steve Santarsiero is making noise about a run, and would be a good candidate, as would Shaughnessy Naughton. Democrats should make a run at this seat in a Presidential year, with two good candidates.
  • New York 13: Michael Grimm's retirement leaves his Staten Island seat open for a special election in 2015, meaning the wait isn't as long here. The Republicans are considering nominating Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan, the guy who didn't indict in the Eric Garner killing. Former Democratic Congressman Michael McMahon and Assemblyman Michael Cusick are both expressing interest, while I'd love to see State Senator Diane Savino jump into that race. Democrats would be smart to take a good shot at this one.
  • Pennsylvania Senate: Senator Pat Toomey has a solid approval rating, and yet is considered to be on weak footing for a 2016 re-election. Former Congressman and 2010 nominee Joe Sestak is in the race, and he came close in 2010. It seems that a lot of people want another option though. If Democrats can get behind a good candidate in time, this race is a great starting point to win back the Senate.
  • New Jersey 5: For a minute in 2014, Congressman Scott Garrett looked like he was in trouble. I don't think that was accidental. Ultimately it was a tough year, and he won over Roy Cho, but this district is a lot better for Democrats in Presidential Elections. Cho and 2006 nominee and Ridgefield Mayor Paul Arohnson both could take another shot at Garrett. I'm personally partial towards State Senator Bob Gordon and former Bill Clinton speechwriter Josh Gottheimer right now (I'd like to see Cho put on the Freeholder Board in Bergen County). I'd expect Hillary to actually carry this seat.
  • New Hampshire 1: Congressman Frank Guinta and former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter have traded this seat back and forth since 2010, and with a Presidential year in 2016, Shea-Porter or another Democrat could beat Guinta in 2016. CREW named Guinta one of the most corrupt members of Congress in his previous term, so there's plenty to run against.
  • New Jersey 2: Frank LoBiondo was generally seen as shaky, if safe, in 2014's campaign. The district leans solidly Democratic in Presidential elections, but few Democrats have wanted to take on the long-time Congressman. He turns 70 in 2016, and has been in the House since joining in the class of '94. He could retire, which would make it a prime opportunity. More likely though, LoBiondo would have to be defeated. State Senator Jeff Van Drew would be the strongest candidate to beat LoBiondo now.
  • New Hampshire Senate: Kelly Ayotte may be regarded as many things, but she's not regarded as safe. A strong Democrat, running next to Hillary Clinton, can beat her. Governor Maggie Hassan tops that list, for me.
  • Iowa 1: The former seat of Congressman Bruce Braley flipped in 2014, but Iowa was particularly bad in 2014. If Democrats can get a solid candidate, they can beat freshman Rod Blum, who won a tight race. This is a D+5 seat, and should be flippable.
  • Iowa 3: David Young trailed Staci Appel on September 15th in a poll, but won on the strength of a strong Republican Year in Iowa. In 2016, that will be more difficult to pull off. President Obama did win this district in 2012, and Democrats can win the Des Moines and Council Bluffs area seat.
  • Illinois Senate: Senator Mark Kirk's 2010 victory was aided in large part by timing- it was 2010. Now I doubt Michelle Obama will challenge Kirk and take her husband's old seat back, but Democrats will have have lots of other good options in Illinois.
  • Pennsylvania 6: Ryan Costello was elected to this seat in 2014 without much of a challenge, but it is a narrowly divided seat. In 2014, a moderate Democratic candidate running with Hillary Clinton could get this seat a go.
  • North Carolina Senate: Richard Burr has never been loved in North Carolina. Could now former-Senator Kay Hagan return two years after defeat and knock him out? The state should be contested Presidentially, making for a good race.

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Posted in 2016 Congressional races | No comments

Monday, December 15, 2014

Thoughts on Upcoming Pennsylvania Elections After PA Society News, Ahead of State Committee Meeting

Posted on 5:00 AM by whitehate
So PA Society is over, and what we know right now is that the top race for 2016 in Pennsylvania is the U.S. Senate race. This is not the only race though of note. State Treasurer will be an open seat, Attorney General and Auditor General are on the ballot, and potentially competitive Congressional races exist in PA-8, 6, and 12.

Starting in the Senate race, the choice for Democrats right now seems to be between former Congressman and 2010 nominee Joe Sestak and possibly Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro. Attorney General Kathleen Kane will absolutely not be running now, and no one else is currently making noise about a run. Sestak did a very nice job running competitively in 2010, mostly as a result of a favorable profile for a statewide run in Pennsylvania. With that said, there are issues with Sestak's campaign organization in 2010 that concern me, so I'm keeping an open mind between the two, for now. Shapiro has shown an ability to "turn" Montgomery from red-to-blue, but is totally an unknown statewide if he runs. Given how far out this race is, it might not even happen, so there's no point having a preference yet.

On the row offices, Kane is running for re-election, and right now I don't see any reason to not back her. There have been past rumors about Philadelphia DA Seth Williams and other names coming up to challenge her, and if that happens, you re-evaluate then. I'm inclined to support the incumbent Attorney General though. In the Auditor General race, we're going to re-nominate Eugene DePasquale, and we should, he does great work. As for the Treasurer race, I had heard nothing prior to reports that Joe Torsella raised $950,000 already for the race. That is an impressive number to raise before anyone else is even getting any buzz.

I'm glad to hear that State Rep. Steve Santarsiero is considering a run in PA-8, as he has a proven record of winning in a competitive region of Bucks County, and if he can repeat that, could possibly give Democrats a chance to win in a Presidential year. Mike Parrish out in PA-6 would be a credible challenger there after not running a credible candidate in 2014. As for Erin McClellan in PA-12, I do think she'd do better in 2014, but I do have some doubts after this race.

In short, I don't think Democrats got any bad news this weekend. That's good. Before we get to 2016 though, there are judicial races coming up in 2015. Seats on the Supreme Court and Superior Court are already developing, and as a state committeeman, I'm already getting mail from the candidates. I hope to write up a little more on those races in the coming days, as I review what I received. These races will possibly dictate who controls 2021's Congressional re-districting process, a pretty big deal to most of us who want a better Congress. 
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Posted in 2015 Pennsylvania Judicial Races, 2016 Congressional races, 2016 Pennsylvania row office races, 2016 Pennsylvania Senate race | No comments
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Blog Archive

  • ▼  2015 (172)
    • ▼  January (172)
      • About that Joni Ernst Gal......
      • The PA Senate Race of 2016
      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/21/15- 50 Cent feat...
      • Obama: Grow the Middle Class. GOP: Uh, No.
      • Senator Joni Ernst's Republican Response to the St...
      • So, How'd the President Do?
      • Text of the State of the Union
      • The State of the Union
      • Joni Ernst- More Wingnut than Star
      • Exit Stage Right, Crooks
      • Wolf Keeps It Simple and Straight-Forward
      • The State of Our Union is Pretty Good
      • Mission to Pluto- The Time is Now
      • I Guess We Don't All Celebrate MLK the Same
      • Picture of the Day- 1/20/15
      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/20/15- U2- Beautifu...
      • Just a Thought Here
      • "Pipelines are Safe".... or something....
      • It's Almost Show-Time- An Intro to Hillarynomics
      • Pennsylvania's Four Year Long Nightmare is Over- C...
      • My Hopes for the State of the Union
      • No- You Are Not MLK.
      • "Powerhouse" Nats Now Basically Where the Phillies...
      • World Cup, Olympics Not Bringing Home the Bacon in...
      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/19/15
      • Why No Love for Andrew?
      • People Would Much Rather Romney Run Than Christie...
      • Yes, I Blame Our Elders for a Lot of Millennial Is...
      • At Twelve Weeks, The Sixers Churning Along
      • Super Bowl XLIX
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      • Picture of the Day- 1/18/15
      • The Week in Review
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      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/17/15- Fuel- Hemorr...
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      • Picture of the Day- 1/17/15
      • Chris Christie's Attempt to Screw His Successor, N...
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      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/16/15- Rancid- Ruby...
      • Picture of the Day- 1/16/15
      • Bobby Jindal, America's New Worst Governor
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      • LOLGOP!
      • Happy Birthday, Martin Luther King Jr.
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      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/15/15- Naughty By N...
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      • My Two-Cents on Foles, Mariota, Oregon, and the Draft
      • New Jersey Likes Their Bridges Open, Chris
      • When the Champagne Stops, Things Will Get Tough fo...
      • Rand Paul is an Annoying Media Obsession
      • Don't Read Too Far Into Early Polls
      • The Latest Depiction of Valerie Jarrett
      • Time to Go?
      • The Democratic Coalition
      • Comedy of the Day- Cruz to Oversee NASA
      • A Note on McClure's "Unwinnable" District
      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/13/15- Pearl Jam- "...
      • Take Christie Seriously?
      • Newsom Out, Harris In for California Senate
      • Why Mitt Romney Matters
      • Picture of the Day- 1/13/15
      • Paul Ryan Decided to Run for Speaker, Not President
      • Today's Comedy
      • Lamont McClure
      • Maher, Rushdie, Fiorina, and Begala on Charlie Heb...
      • Christie Has Been a Corrupt Hypocrite for a Long Time
      • Thought of the Week: #JeSuisCharlie or Shades of G...
      • Are Catholic School Sports Teams Unbeatable?
      • .... And Then There Were Four.....
      • George Clooney is the Man
      • When Bureaucratic Wars Become Political Footballs
      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/12/15- Jay Z- Hard ...
      • Stop Viewing Daughters and Women as Property
      • Picture of the Day- 1/12/15
      • Intolerance and the Ignorant Conservatives
      • The Most Entitled Generation? I Think We Can Pinpo...
      • Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI)- Hypocritical, Misogyni...
      • Song of the Day- 1/11/15- The Rolling Stones- Symp...
      • At Eleven Weeks, Youth Begins to be Served for the...
      • Picture of the Day- 1/11/15
      • The Weekly Wrap Up
      • Does Anything Need to be Said About This?
      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/10/15- Meek Mill, f...
      • The Sixers Should Release Kirilenko
      • John Boehner's Republican House Seeks to Kill Soci...
      • About Those Aspirations, Cowboy....
      • Picture of the Day- 1/10/15
      • Sad Day for America
      • Say No to Keystone XL in Creative Ways
      • Picture of the Day- 1/9/15
      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/9/15- The Rolling S...
      • Grand Jury Only Seals Kane's Already Cold Fate
      • The Awe-Inspiring Eagle Nebula
      • Trade Wroten? Like Cunningham? Sign Free Agents? I...
      • And Like That, the Holidays End.
      • GOP House to the Disabled: Go To Hell
      • Being Successful Has It's Drawbacks
      • Former MTV Host Kennedy Defends CEOs by Misusing t...
      • As Republicans Take Power, They Show Their Priorit...
      • No Tears for Boehner Here
      • What Part of Public Office Confuses You?
      • The Terrible New Majority Leadership In The Senate
      • Go For It, Mitt
      • As Republicans Take Power, They Show Their Priorit...
      • Announcements and Announcements, and more Announce...
      • For Your Listening Pleasure- 1/8/15- ODB- Baby, I ...
      • Picture of the Day- 1/8/15
  • ►  2014 (328)
    • ►  December (193)
    • ►  November (135)
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