For this reason, I'm kind of sick of Washington media types and cable news fawning over this do-nothing Senator from Kentucky and his quixotic campaign for President. He does not have a chance. The stories are annoying. I'll explain why.
Rand Paul does not lead a single poll a year out, which hardly disqualifies him, but certainly doesn't justify the media's coverage of him in the same way it's covering Romney, Bush, or even candidates with some past record of success, like Huckabee. More important than the polls at this point though is the money race, and the money race is no kinder to Rand. As Bush, Romney, and even Christie lock up the money types, Paul is going to be left well behind on Wall Street, which doesn't like risky, new-idea types like him. He's going to be smoked in oil-rich Texas, where Bush, Perry, and Cruz all should use their ties to dominate. Then there's California, where he may find some libertarian money, but he'll still lose the rich, business-man race there too. He's not going to do great with the pro-Israel Republicans while talking up isolation, and the defense contractors will want nothing to do with him. Paul will have to run entirely on grassroots money, like his father, who lost despite doing okay at this. Paul starts out both behind and probably lacking the resources the big-boys have.
So what about his message? Well, as I said above, he's not going to appeal to the war-hawks or Wall Street, two key groups in the GOP. Some of the positions that make him interesting to the press, on incarceration for instance, have no real constituency. While some think his new-age thinking will appeal to a younger generation and pull them out, I'll bet you a steak now that this won't happen. Young, future conservatives generally don't care until they start paying taxes. The Republican Primary will still be a lot of old, white people. Especially in the Iowa Caucus, and the South Carolina Primary. Can he try to appeal in New Hampshire? Sure, but Romney is strong. Can he try to appeal in Nevada? Sure, but good luck getting by Romney and Bush there too.
Let's say for a second that Paul somehow wins New Hampshire, or some other early contest, gets into the more nationalized stage of the primaries, and overcomes his problems with the party on a few social issues and national security. Let's even say that he somehow wins the nomination. Fair enough. This man said the Civil Rights Act should not apply to private businesses. So, the Democrat should do similarly well with African-Americans as President Obama, despite his best efforts on incarceration. He's voted to block immigration reforms in the Senate. So, the Democrat should do similarly well with Latinos as President Obama. Is he going to run as a full-fledged supporter of Marriage Equality to narrow the gap with LGBT Americans? Asian-Americans like immigration reform too, and he still voted to block it. Perhaps you believe he can cut into younger Americans right now because he's "hip," but he's out of step with their stated positions in poll after poll, and the one or two wedge issues he has will simply narrow the gap. I fail to see how he flips 64 electoral votes that Romney lost.
Ron Paul lost badly for President. Rand Paul is going to lose badly too. I get that he's an attractive guy who will give interviews, that he's unafraid to speak to groups and crowds who don't support him. That's nice. Exactly the policies and persona he seeks to put forward that interest the press and liberals are the reasons he won't even sniff the GOP nomination, and even so they are a fairy-tale that would be exposed in the Fall election as a fraud. In short, stop wasting our time talking about this lunatic, media types, and cover the actual race.
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