The PA Senate Race of 2016

Here's the state of Pennsylvania's 2016 Senate race:

PPP's first poll of the 2016 Pennsylvania Senate race finds it picking up pretty much where the 2010 Senate race left off- with Pat Toomey holding a narrow edge over Joe Sestak. Toomey leads Sestak 40/36, similar to his 2 point margin of victory the first time the duo faced off.

Four years into his first term, Toomey's approval numbers aren't terribly impressive. 28% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 35% who disapprove, comparable to the 31/34 spread he posted on PPP's last poll in June. A plurality of voters- 37%- don't have any opinion about Toomey at all. That level of anonymity with voters leaves his fate next year somewhat up to the political winds- if it's another good year for Republicans like the last time he ran he may be alright, but if it's a stronger Democratic year he'll be in deep trouble.

Sestak has largely faded from Pennsylvanians' minds since his 2010 bid as well. Only 40% of voters in the state have an opinion about him with those holding one pretty evenly divided in their feelings.

Sestak does about as well as Chris Matthews (he trails 42-38%). The only candidate beating Toomey is former Governor Rendell, who I'd love to see run, but he won't. Most of the Democrats trail Toomey, despite Toomey not being all that strong.

I don't believe Josh Shapiro will run (nor should he, he should be one of several candidates considering a run for Attorney General), and I don't see a whole lot of other takers to challenge Sestak. The one person making noise, Chris Carney, is receiving mixed reviews. I'm not at all bothered by his "Blue Dog" history, but we all know there are some who are.

The issue that Democratic operatives have with Sestak is less about his politics (which are fine), or his 2010 result (he only lost because it was 2010), but more so the campaign he ran, and the difficulty the party had in dealing with him. In such a crucial race to the balance of power, that means a lot more than some bio points and declarations of being qualified.

For myself, I'm open to Sestak or Carney, and would consider myself a free agent. Same for a potential Matthews campaign if that came up. I do have some misgivings about where our field is though.