Why There's No Reason to Keep Howard Around

David Murphy is out with a piece that tries to make a good argument for keeping Ryan Howard, but instead makes the best argument for Maikel Franco starting the season in AAA. He makes two main points-

1. If Franco spends about 40 days in AAA, he won't be a free agent until after 2021, instead of after 2020.
2. Ryan Howard is really worth about $4 million a year tops, and no one is going to take significant money on to deal for him.

Alright, so let's dive into this a bit. We'll start on the Franco point-

• I do agree with his basic economic premise on Franco. Do you want all of 2015 with Franco and him as a free agent after 2020, or most of 2015 with him and him as a free agent after 2021? Pretty easy, right? Right now, that is the choice, and you keep him in AAA to start the season. You could always get around this by negotiating a team friendly contract with him now, much like the Astros did with Singleton, and negate this point. I don't really understand why Franco even factors into the first base discussion though. Yes, he can play it, and someday will probably need to. Right now, he's a very good defensive third baseman that should probably be the starter there. Asche's offensive game wasn't terrible in 2014, but he's not a great defensive third baseman, and his future is probably not at third base to be honest. I'd rather turn him into a utility guy for now, with the goal being for him to win an outfield or second base slot for the future. This is Franco's spot for the next several years, not first base.
• On the money side, Murphy is spot on about Howard's value. The Phillies will have to eat between $50-56 million to move Howard off of their roster in a trade. You would both get little savings and no real prospect to move Howard. Now, first off, I'd do that anyway, because $4 million can get you a bullpen arm or a bench piece that is helpful. Second off, even if you have to release Howard, the difference between the best case scenario ($50 million eaten), and worst case scenario ($60 million paid to not play here), is not enough that it should dissuade you from a good baseball move. Ryan Howard does not fit on this team anymore defensively, is taking middle of the order at-bats away from someone else, and is taking up a roster spot the Phillies should be using on a younger player. I'd rather not get into a choice between keeping Darin Ruf, Cesar Hernandez, or Odubel Herrera on this team. All are more intriguing to see play at this point.

All of this also sort of supposes that the options at first base are Howard and Franco. I'd like to see Franco at third base. I'd like to see Darin Ruf at first base. Could Ruf really be a complete bust that isn't worth a roster spot? Yes. Do I think we've seen enough to know that? No. Even if you think Ruf is too old to be a part of a good future team, just getting a good half-season out of him would make him easier to trade than Howard right now. If Ruf can put together 25 homers and 80 RBI's, and even just a .750 OPS, he's an upgrade. My guess is he'd put up an .800 OPS over a full season, and be a much better defender. Even if he didn't, who cares, you expect nothing this season from the team. For a half-million dollars, you get a look to see what you have finally, and if he's not good, you know it's another area you need to rebuild. You have to rebuild it now with Howard. For what it's worth, Ruf has less career plate appearances than Howard had last year. 

If I was the GM, I'd be calling AL teams that need a DH and offering to eat $55 million to trade Howard for a C list prospect. It's not a matter of whether or not I think he'll have a better year, or is a good guy, or really any of the other things we've discussed this off-season about Howard. It's really a matter of wanting to look at as many younger players as possible. Howard is not improving and he is not young. For those reasons, and completely independent of decisions on a player like Maikel Franco, I'd trade him away.

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Phillies Odds and Ends

Cody Asche goes yard in Allentown.
Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

Some notes on the Phillies off-season and upcoming Spring Training.

• The Phillies are hyping up Ryan Howard's character in efforts to trade him. No offense to the second best power hitter in Phillies history, but no one is trading for character, they need a baseball player. I'm shocked actually at how incapable the Phillies have been at trying to deal their first baseman. Yes, he is owed an absurd amount of money, but the Phillies could handle that in-house. You would think some AL team would take 23 homers from a lefty DH. He certainly is more productive, when price is removed, than the players that Kansas City and Tampa Bay obtained.
• Despite what they say, I do believe the Phillies would release Ryan Howard before the season, and should. Yes, he's owed $60 million. He's going to get that whether he plays here, doesn't play here, or we pay someone else to pay him. He's blocking up a roster spot on a team that can no longer afford to have him on the field. Releasing Howard frees up roster spots, line-up spots,  and overall playing time. If they have to pay him, so be it. They have to anyway. Moving Howard out before he gets ten-and-five rights in May is imperative. If that means a buy-out, then do it.
• Wandy Rodriguez won't be on the 2015 team, or even in camp. He failed his physical, and then somehow signed in Atlanta. To me, this sounds like a mutual parting where an excuse was needed. Is there no longer room in the Phillies rotation? That could only be true if Cole Hamels is not moving right now. Perhaps that's true. This could also mean that Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez or Adam Morgan, among others, are benefitting. Right now you'd have to pencil in a rotation of Hamels, Lee, Harang, Williams, and Buchanan.
• Speaking of Cole Hamels, if the San Diego Padres do not want to include Wil Myers in a trade, I'd say thanks, but no thanks. I like Austin Renfroe, but his AA numbers don't cut it on their own. Austin Hedges is also a player I like, but his offense took a step back in AA last season too. Even the two of them as the centerpiece of a deal leaves me concerned.
• If the Phillies can move Hamels and pick up a catching prospect, either now, or during the season, I still see opportunity to move Carlos Ruiz. We know that Arizona is looking for help behind the plate, as could Pittsburgh. Both teams would be intriguing trade partners.
• Ben Revere may price himself out of town if his arbitration case goes the distance. He and Dom Brown both filed yesterday, and both now will submit their salary desires. While Revere's $1.9 million salary was reasonable last year, the limitations of his game cap him only slightly above that in mind. The Phillies should take a chance at selling high on Revere, as they have some decent centerfield options in the system.

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What Happens Between Signing Aaron Harang and Spring Training?

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

Well, it's official, the Phillies have signed Aaron Harang to a one-year, $5 million deal for 2015. At the moment, Harang slots behind Hamels and Lee as the third starter, just in front of David Buchanan. Jerome Williams will be the front runner to be the fifth starter, with Wandy Rodriguez, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, and Adam Morgan coming to camp to compete too. If nothing changes, the Phillies probably are done signing pitchers.

Obviously though, the Phillies are not done. There are several more moves that are possible from now until Spring Training, and even Opening Day. We've seen Antonio Bastardo, Jimmy Rollins, and Marlon Byrd sent packing already, and we've seen a few signings already. Now what is there to watch for moving forward?

• From the obvious list, Cole Hamels could certainly still be moved. I do not like the talk of the team becoming "more realistic," as with Ruben that could mean another Tyson Gillies/Phillippe Aumont package coming. If anything, now is the time to hold the line on getting at least two big pieces back in a four player deal (I'm defining that as either major league ready, controllable players or top prospects), as the teams who could buy are starting to get more desperate to get their ace. I see San Diego, St. Louis, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Toronto, Texas, and Boston as teams that could get it done.
• Also pretty obvious is dealing Ryan Howard, in my view a priority. Howard will obtain 10-and-5 rights if he is back this year, and already has $60 million remaining on his deal. The Phillies will eat $50 million to move him and open first base up for either Franco or Ruf (I prefer Franco plays third, personally). We keep watching Baltimore and Tampa, and with good reason, but don't completely count out a Toronto either. Basically, anyone who needs a lefty DH is someone the Phillies should talk to.
• Jonathan Papelbon talk is quiet, but I wouldn't assume that's going to stay that way. He had 39 saves in 43 opportunities last year for a terrible baseball team. He's one of the best closers ever. Teams need a closer. The Yankees will come up, but I'd also watch the Blue Jays and Tigers. Others will emerge in the closer market.
• I continue to hold out the possibility of Ben Revere being dealt before he goes to arbitration. Revere is a nice ballplayer, who had a very nice year. He's also a limited ballplayer who will get a raise. Plus, the Phillies are talking about Rule-5 pick Odubal Herrera playing some center, and would like to still get Jeff Francoeur onto the 40 man roster. San Diego may want him in a Hamels deal that brings Wil Myers over, presuming he doesn't go somewhere in a stand-alone deal.
• In theory, if the Phillies get a catcher in a Hamels deal, they could then try to trade Carlos Ruiz.  Watch Pittsburgh on that front. 

My thoughts of a Cody Asche deal never really materialized, no one will take Dom Brown, and the Phillies are insistent on Chase Utley starting the year here for some reason (no idea why), so I doubt anything else happens before the season, or that all of these do. Once you get into the season, a healthy Cliff Lee could be dealt, as could Jerome Williams or Aaron Harang if they do alright. For now though, I think we're basically watching five players to see if they're still here.

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A Post-Byrd Look at the Phillies Roster and Prospects

A lock to make it?
Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

Well, the Phillies are certainly in rebuilding mode now. They traded their third veteran this off-season yesterday, sending Marlon Byrd to the Cincinnati Reds for prospect pitcher Ben Lively. Byrd joins Jimmy Rollins, Antonio Bastardo, and Roberto Hernandez amongst the jettisoned, and Lively becomes the sixth prospect added by trade. If the Phillies were direction-less and lost at the deadline, that is over now.

Byrd's trade was largely expected, and leaves just Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Carlos Ruiz as position players over 30 in the line-up. One would guess that Howard, Cole Hamels, Ben Revere, and Jonathan Papelbon would be the most likely Phillies to be traded next, with Ruiz as a bit of a dark horse. If I were a betting man, Utley and Cliff Lee will go too, but it'll be next Summer.

We can't walk around assuming guys are gone though until they are, so I'll move forward under the assumption that what we have is what we have. So, to update my 25 man projection at the moment:

• Rotation (5)- Hamels, Lee, Buchanan, and Williams are in. Beyond that, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Adam Morgan, Kevin Slowey and Wandy Rodriguez would appear to be the front-runners, with Jonathan Pettibone and Jesse Biddle also coming to camp. Since there are only 37 guys on the roster right now, I'd guess Wandy wins the fifth slot, but who knows really.
• Infielders (8)- Howard, Utley, Galvis, Franco, Ruiz, Hernandez, Asche, Rupp. For the purposes of Odubal Herrera making this team, i'm considering him an outfielder. Chase d'Arnaud could make a run here too, as well as Andres Blanco, but I don't like their odds. Hernandez has a guaranteed contract and Asche will give them a more dependable piece.
• Outfielders (5)- Brown, Revere, Sizemore, Ruf, Herrera. One of the reasons I don't think the Phillies are done making moves is that I think Jeff Francoeur will make this team out of camp, but as is I don't see how. I think the Phillies will want to keep Herrera around, given his potential, and Ruf's bat will be needed on this team. This is why I'd keep my eyes on a move that sends Howard or Revere packing next.
• Bullpen (7)- Papelbon, Giles, Diekman, and de Fratus are absolutely in. I'd take a guess that Hollands and Gonzalez make this team too. That leaves one spot currently, to be fought for between a front-running pack of Ethan Martin, Andy Oliver, Cesar Jimenez, and Elvis Araujo, and a rest of the field that includes Luis Garcia, Hector Neris, Nefi Ogando, and of course, Phillippe Aumont. Right now, my money's narrowly on Jimenez, though I'd like to see Martin come in and earn a spot.

It's pretty hard to guess any roster on January 1st, so I won't say i'm confident in this, let alone with a team that is selling off their roster as we speak. The guys who make the most sense to go next- Howard, Papelbon, Revere, and Hamels- have wildly different asking prices and serve varying different purposes to other teams. The Phillies just need to move Howard off the roster and the payroll, to create space. The Phillies and Papelbon just need a clean split, as there's no reason to have such a high-priced closer on such a bad team. Revere makes sense to sell high on, and would open up some space. Hamels is increasingly a tricky case as the off-season rolls on. He's got the highest value on the roster, and it makes sense to deal him for the right deal if it comes. It hasn't yet though, and if it drags on to Spring Training, or even the season, and Cliff Lee is healthy and pitching well, it might make more sense to trade Lee than Hamels when the time comes. They absolutely could trade both (nothing really stopping them), but Hamels will be just 31 this season, and is still very productive, so there may be reason to hold onto him.

All of this leads to the prospects, and the influx of them we've had since last trade deadline. How do they all rate out? After doing some reading on them, I would rate them out like this:

1. J.P. Crawford
2. Maikel Franco
3. Aaron Nola
4. Roman Quinn
5. Zach Eflin
6. Aaron Altherr
7. Carlos Tocci
8. Jesse Biddle
9. Tom Windle
10. Ben Lively
11. Aaron Brown
12. Jesmuel Valentin
13. Dylan Cozens
14. Matt Imhof
15. Severino Gonzalez
16. Victor Arano
17. Yoel Mecias
18. Franklyn Kilome
19. Andrew Knapp
20. Chris Oliver

So my thought process here is that 1-4 is set, you pick your order. I like Altherr and Biddle more than Baseball America does, but they go with our three new prospect arms in this group's top ten. The strength of this system is clearly pitching now. Throw into this group above lefty Joely Rodriguez, obtained for Antonio Bastardo and bringing in a live-arm, and you have a bit to sort out in the mid-levels of the minors, in terms of who goes where. Of this whole group, the only guy I see being helpful this season is Franco, so it's all subject to further revision in the 2015 season.

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The State of my Sports Teams, End of 2014 Edition

As 2014 comes to an end, it's clear to me that most of my sports teams stink. It's ugly right now as a Philadelphia fan, and not much better on the college ranks. I figured I'd write a state of each of my favorite teams for the new year. Here we go:

• The Philadelphia Phillies- Status: Poor but Improving- This is going to be a rough season. After finishing last in 2014, the Phillies are going to be picked to finish last again. The positive news? They traded Jimmy Rollins and got back a Padres first round pick and Dodgers second round pick on the mound. Kyle Kendrick, A.J. Burnett, and Roberto Hernandez all pitched at or below replacement level, and are gone. There's reason to believe that Marlon Byrd, Chase Utley, Ben Revere, Carlos Ruiz, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, and even Ryan Howard could all move on this year or next, returning some prospects, cutting some payroll, and maybe even clearing space for free agents. Of course, the downside to that is a very, very young team in the near future, a team that will be expected to lose. While they may only really miss Hamels, Lee, Utley, and Revere of that list, they won't all be replaced with equal talents quickly. So, expect a last place finish in 2015. More so, the system they have isn't deep, as only top prospect Maikel Franco of the "elite four" as I refer to Franco, Aaron Nola, J.P. Crawford, and Roman Quinn, is likely to help in 2015 much, and Crawford and Quinn haven't seen AA yet. The Phillies will need another good draft, hope for guys like Aaron Altherr and Jesse Biddle to suddenly click, and then hope they get some good returns on their trades. In short, things are moving too slowly, and they are going to be really badly in 2015, but the Phillies at least started to rebuild by trading Rollins and Bastardo. Their current haul of five players, counting their Rule 5 picks, this off-season is a start though.
• The Philadelphia Eagles- Status: Above Average and Unclear- Over the last two football season, counting last year's playoff game, the Eagles are 20-13 since firing Andy Reid. Considering they were 4-12 before that, you have to give that some love. Chip Kelly has shown he can win football games in the NFL, and the team is actually exciting to watch. With that said, they went 1-3 against the big boys in the NFC West, they lost football games to four of the six playoff teams in the conference, and didn't even compete well against the top two. The offense needs to look for an answer at quarterback, straighten out LeSean McCoy's contract situation, replace Todd Herremans and get deeper on the line, and straighten out the receivers if Maclin leaves. The entire secondary on the defense needs work, and Demeco Ryans might need to be replaced too. After special teams, really no unit is close to set. Chip Kelly is by no means in any kind of trouble with a 20-12 record through two regular seasons, but perhaps there is more to prove in 2015. The coming draft and free agent period is the first critical one of his tenure.
• The Philadelphia Flyers- Status: Very mediocre and stationary- The Flyers made the playoffs last year and lost in the first round. Right now, they'd miss the playoffs, and they have a -9 differential. They've had issues with health and consistency, and obviously defensive play. They're not much of a contender, and they're only good randomly. This is probably the worst situation of the four teams, as they aren't good, aren't contending, and aren't getting better. Frankly the issue is a stagnant owner. With all of that said, you just have to give this front office time, as they're new.
• The Philadelphia 76ers- Status: Awful and building- Ok, so this team has 4 wins, and might end up under their own low record of nine. Joel Embiid might not play a game this season. Nerlens Noel is improving each week though, Michael Carter-Williams is excellent, and they've received flashes from K.J. McDaniels. The future is far away though. Furkan Alder is a work in progress, Dario Saric remains in Turkey, and a certain lottery pick from this year's team (if not more) still lies ahead. The good news? They have cap space. They have a good GM. They have a good coach. They have some really good young talent. They also lost by 40 tonight to Golden State though, which is really awful.

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Where the 2015 Roster, Top Ten Prospects Stand, Post-Rollins

Cesar Hernandez could finally get a real shot.
Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

Jimmy Rollins has been traded, and the Phillies appear poised to do more moving forward. While no one is overly concerned right now with what the 2015 team looks like, the reality is that they will have to put out a team, and that team will play a 162 game schedule. That roster is considerably less stable and settled with Rollins gone, and spring training could be a real wild ride if there are more moves.

Currently speaking, this is what the 25 man roster would look like:

• A rotation of Hamels, Lee, Buchanan, and Williams from one to four would probably come to camp somewhat safe. Adam Morgan and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez would be favored in the fight for the fifth starter spot under this scenario, as Pettibone may not be 100% at the start of camp, Biddle really struggled in AA last year, and no one else is on the 40 man roster right now. I'd assume they sign someone yet this Winter, but that may not change the fifth starter situation if they end up trading Hamels anyway.
• The infield at the moment would consist of Ruiz catching, Howard at first, Utley at second, Galvis at short, Franco or Asche at third, the other being on the bench, and Cesar Hernandez being a utility option. Presumably Cameron Rupp is the current back-up catcher, though I'd think the Phillies are looking for someone else on the market. Odubel Herrera, the Rule 5 pick, is listed on the roster as an infielder, but I presume right now that his pathway onto the squad is in the outfield more likely, unless another move is coming.
• The outfield at the moment is similar to the one that played last year. Byrd, Revere, and Brown, from right to left, are all on the roster right now, with Darin Ruf and Grady Sizemore on the bench. I don't think they'll break camp with Kelly Dugan or Aaron Altherr on the big league club, as both could use some more plate appearances in AA or AAA. Herrera could certainly win a spot here, provided the Phillies move either Byrd or Revere (or Howard, and Ruf plays first), or he simply beats out Brown.
• The current bullpen is very good at the back end, with Papelbon, Giles, Diekman, and De Fratus all being near locks. That would leave the Phillies with three more spots to fill, with at least one going left-handed. You would have to think Mario Hollands is favored to win a spot, as he threw well until he ran out of gas as a rookie last year. The other potential lefties are Elvis Araujo, Cesar Jimenez, and Rule 5 pick Andy Oliver. The righties in consideration right now would be Luis Garcia, Ethan Martin, Hector Neris, Nefi Ogando, and possibly Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. I'd bet on Hollands, Martin, and Oliver right now. This could change considerably though too.

Obviously this is not a championship roster, though I'd argue a complete purge of the older players doesn't make them a whole lot worse than they were, particularly if they improve in left and first base. The Phillies should err on the side of giving more chances to players with some potential future role on the team, even if it's on the bench, to see what they have moving forward. They're not going to do a lot of winning anyway.

The Phillies did pick up two prospects in the Rollins trade. Both of them were at the back-end of MLB.com's top ten rankings for the Dodgers and Padres, while they slotted in the 11-20 range for Baseball America. While neither will slot into the Phillies immediate top four prospects, both have a shot of making the Phillies top ten moving forward.

Just for the sake of argument, I'll put my Christmas time top ten prospects out now:

1. J.P. Crawford
2. Maikel Franco
3. Aaron Nola
4. Roman Quinn
5. Aaron Altherr
6. Carlos Tocci
7. Matt Imhof
8. Jesse Biddle
9. Aaron Brown
10. Zach Eflin

So I'm not dumping on Biddle as hard right now as the "pros" are, in part because I'm hoping some down time this off-season is good for him. I might be overrating Eflin because I want to, but he had nice numbers and was a high pick, so i'm sticking with him there. There is a real gulf after #4, where you can make an argument for almost any other player to rate #5. Hopefully the Spring will bring some clarity with these guys. I also really considered Jesmuel Valentin, obtained last Summer for Roberto Hernandez, and Windle. 

Finally, I'll once again voice my support for going big internationally. I am hoping that Jeong-ho Kang is coming our way, and if he is, don't stress too much over J.P. Crawford's future, as you can probably move Kang to second in the future, or move him for additional talent in a trade when that time comes. The Phillies have money, and should use it internationally to take some chances, and hope it improves the squad. It'll take getting a few risks right to improve this team in a reasonable time.

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Moving Forward- Where the Phillies Stand

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

If you can give any credit at all to the front office (and I don't give much), it's fair to say that the Phillies were very active at the Winter Meetings this year. A couple of trades, some rumored near trades, and a few Rule 5 picks highlighted a week that was very much "make or break" for a franchise that had been standing pat for two years (at least) while their roster got older and less effective. Finally, the Phillies appear to be turning the page on the 2008-era team, and that is a good thing.

I'm going to take a leap of faith and assume the Rollins trade won't hit any more snags here for a moment, but let's take an honest look back at what's happened since game five of the 2008 World Series.  Jayson Werth is now in DC, entering five years, and Shane Victorino is in Boston, going on three years. Pat Burrell and Pedro Feliz don't play Major League Baseball anymore. Jimmy Rollins is heading to the team the Phillies knocked out of the 2008 and 2009 NLCS's. The Phillies are trying to trade Ryan Howard to anyone who will take his contract. They are rumored to be attempting to trade Chase Utley and Cole Hamels from that fateful game five line-up. Only Carlos Ruiz is "safely" on this team, and I think even that is relative. The three relievers who threw in that game are basically out of baseball (even though Madson hasn't said so). Six seasons have passed, and so has the time for nostalgia. The day of greatness has passed for basically anyone involved in that title besides Cole Hamels, and the Phillies should recognize that cold reality and move on.

Hence, I'm for a complete sell-down of what's left. If there is a good (no, not great, just good) offer for Chase Utley and his mid-30's knees, the Phillies should cash in their chips. If there is any offer at all, the Phillies should move Ryan Howard, and he certainly shouldn't be back either way. I'm all for trying to cash out high on Ben Revere (even though he's young, he had a good year, and still has flaws as a player), Marlon Byrd, or both. They should give Papelbon away. If they can get a deal that speeds up the rebuilding process substantially, then I'm fine with dealing Cole Hamels. This doesn't mean they need three blue chip players, but they at least need a couple who will play substantial roles on the next good team.

With that all said, I like the week the Phillies had. The inventory of what they got this week looks like:

• Reportedly Zach Eflin, rated by MLB.com as the Padres #10 prospect, a first round pick in 2012, 33rd overall is in. Eflin is a 20 year old right-handed pitcher who went 10-7 with a 3.80 ERA over a career high 128 innings last year in High-A ball, who has seen his BB/9 decline and his K/9 increase as he's pitched through the minors. He'll probably start in either Clearwater or Reading, and enter our top ten prospects immediately. This is of course just rumored to be a part of the deal, but it would make sense he's in.
• Reportedly Tom Windle, rated by MLB.com as the Dodgers #7 prospect, a second round pick in the 2013 draft is in. Windle will be 23 by Opening Day, and went 12-8 with a 4.26 ERA in 139.1 innings in High-A California League ball. Windle is known for having a nasty slider and has shown improving command this year in a tougher league. Like Elvin, I'd assume a Clearwater or Reading beginning for Windle, who probably cracks our top ten as well.
• The Phillies picked up Texas League (AA) batting champion Odubel Herrera in the first round of the Rule 5 draft. The 22 year old has hit well at most levels he's played in the minors, and can play either outfield or second base, giving him versatility. His glove is considered iffy, but he hit a combined .315 across two levels in 2014, and posted a .771 OPS. The one knock on his bat could be a lack of power so far, but the Phillies are in a position to let him grow into that. They are talking about him playing some center field this Spring.
• The Phillies also picked up Pirates AAA lefty-reliever Andrew Oliver. Oliver, who throws hard, had 13 saves for AAA Indianapolis in 16 opportunities. He also had a 2.53 ERA this year. He walks far too many batters, one of the reasons he had to convert to a reliever, but his 85 K's in 64 innings was impressive this year. Still just 27, Oliver has a shot to make the club too.

So the Phillies picked up four players who could at least be helpful moving forward in rebuilding this team this week. I'd call that successful. I am most intrigued by Herrera of the group, while the others all at least have a shot to be helpful.

Moving forward, the Phillies can't stop the rebuild now. While Cole Hamels would gather the largest return, the available suitors (he makes less sense to both Boston and Chicago after their moves this week) this Winter appears to have decreased, and the Phillies may be better off holding onto him until the deadline to recoup some leverage. The Phillies should concentrate on moving some of the position players with value, namely Chase Utley, who could make sense to the Angels (who just traded Kendricks), Giants (who showed some interest last Summer), Blue Jays (who also showed some interest in the past), or Yankees, and could bring back a return similar to Rollins off of a decent year that saw him make the All-Star team. Marlon Byrd to Baltimore is also something the Phillies should work hard on, or look for another trade partner they can get a nice return from, as he is the best right-handed power bat, corner outfielder still on the market (Seattle might come back into play since they don't like the price for Upton). They should work hard to move Ryan Howard, or at least cut ties somehow before Spring Training as well, so as to avoid allowing him 10-and-5 rights with his $60 million remaining. Making at least a few of these moves happen before Opening Day should be key.

Unofficially coming out of these meetings, with Rollins off and two Rule 5 guys now on the 40 man roster, the Phillies have 38 players on the roster. The probably still need one more starting pitcher and a back-up catcher, minimally (assuming no one else gets dealt), if not a starting shortstop for 2015. This means the off-season is probably far from over.

There are basically two imperatives for the Phillies right now though- clear as much salary as they can, so they can get back into the impact signings market next Winter, and collect as many potential future pieces on the prospect market as possible to build with. The Phillies began that process this week, and I'm quite happy with the return. Hopefully it won't be long before some more action begins for the Phillies this off-season.

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Thank You Jimmy Rollins

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

With the not complete, but done, trade of Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers now seemingly done, I wanted to take a moment to acknowledge one of the greatest Phillies' careers ever. When Jimmy Rollins came up in 2000, gas could be bought for around a buck, Bill Clinton was President, the Vet was still standing, I was a 17 year old junior in high school, and the Phillies stunk. It was a long, long time ago, but the arrival of Jimmy Rollins, and then Pat Burrell, were much anticipated moments that Phillies fans hoped would bring good things ahead. They did.

Four gold gloves, three All-Star Selections, two top-ten MVP finishes, the 2007 MVP award, one of the great playoff walk-off hits in club history, five NL East titles, two National League titles, and the Phillies' second World Series crown in club history later, Jimmy Rollins is being traded to LA. He's 36 now, and the team just finished last, and the trade makes a lot of sense. He's not the player he was during the World Series runs, and the team isn't what it was then, so you move on and hope for the best. The Phillies more than got their money's worth from the 1996 second round pick. Some will knit-pick at his resume and say "he never did this, he never did that," but the full body of work tells the story. Jimmy Rollins is almost certainly one of the ten greatest Phillies in the live ball era, and is the greatest shortstop in team history.

For me though, It always comes back to those 2007 and 2008 Mets games, the rivalry, and what he did for Philadelphia baseball. I remember being at Shea for the Mets' home opener in 2007, after Rollins had declared the Phillies the team to beat in the NL East, and I remember the Mets' fans and their mocking chants at Rollins. I also remember Rollins backing it up and twice breaking those fans hearts. Needless to say, I'll always love Jimmy as much for what he did to the Mets as anything else. It was a great time for baseball in the City of Brotherly Love.

Thanks for the memories, Jimmy.

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Winter Meetings Stories to Watch for the Phillies

Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

It's Winter Meetings week in Major League Baseball, and everyone will be watching the big stories of the week around the league. Where will Jon Lester land tops those stories, but there are others out there, including a potential for Matt Kemp to be moved, and yes, our own Cole Hamels.

So what story lines are the most likely for Phillies fans to be watching? Here's my inside and outside the box potential story lines to watch:

1. Will the Phillies move Marlon Byrd, and for what?- I tend to think Byrd is the most likely player to get moved this week, and I think his value is now pretty decent. I'd watch Cincinnati and St. Louis again, but I also wouldn't dismiss a renewed run at Byrd by Seattle, amongst others. I think the return is probably two players, one of which being someone who will be a part of the future plans for sure.
2. Who will the Phillies sign for their rotation?- Say what, a signing? Yes, a signing. Even if nothing else happens, the Phillies could really use another starting pitcher who will give them (if nothing else) a lot of innings. Currently, they have Hamels, Lee, Buchanan, and Williams who made significant starts in the 2014 rotation, and could use at least one more reliable or better arm. Watch for a move here.
3. Will they or won't they trade Cole Hamels?- My gut instinct is that the Phillies will trade Hamels due to their inability to move anyone else for any young talent, and their inability to convince Utley and Rollins that it's time to move on. The Phillies simply need that first bold step to begin the rebuild, and Hamels is that step. Once Lester's decision is made, there will be an active market for Hamels, and the Phillies can probably land at least two impact prospects, and another two with upside. My only caveat is that if this doesn't happen this week, it might not happen this Winter, as the Phillies will hold out until the deadline, and get a better sense of where they are at. It's harder to trade for pieces that have a 2015 impact (to be read- roster spot) later in the Winter, when you're team is more in place.
4. Is there any market for Ryan Howard, or will they have to release him?- This is really it for trading Ryan Howard. If you can't move him at these meetings, you probably can't move him. If you can't move him in a trade, you probably have to release him before he achieves 10-and-5 rights during next season, and you're stuck with him through his contract.
5. Will the Phillies trade Cody Asche?- You have San Diego and San Francisco most directly, but also possibly teams like the Yankees looking for a third baseman. You have a player blocking your most advanced prospect. While there has been discussion of moving him back to second, or to the outfield, the Phillies haven't made a move towards either. I think it's possible that Cody Asche is traded this week.
6. Could the Phillies trade Ben Revere?- While this may seem like bad timing, Revere has high value right now, but the same weak throwing arm, and the same lack of power he had before. With Roman Quinn's good Fall, and Revere's relative value, not to mention his potential raise through arbitration, this could be a good time to move Revere and cash out high.
7. Will the Phillies trade Carlos Ruiz?- I think this one is tied to #3, as they'd have to get their catcher of the future in a Hamels deal to make this worth it, but Ruiz has some money, and some on-field value left on his deal. Could the Phillies decide to capitalize on that? If they have their replacement in-house then, they could.
8. Could the Phillies sign a big free agent?- This seems silly, but Max Scherzer is out there, and well, an arm like that can take a 73 win Phillies team and push it close to .500. Does that type of deal make sense? Not unless you have other moves that can take them from 80 wins up to 85 plus too (which they don't), but that's purely from the perspective of fans on the internet, reading advance metrics, who want a rebuild. The Phillies could decide to spend some of their near-limitless resources on someone to sell some tickets in 2015, because they are going to struggle to sell tickets. This is a business.
9. Could the Phillies trade a young reliever?- I know, this doesn't appear to make a ton of sense at first either. The Phillies need quantity of young talent right now though, and nobody seems to want to give that for their trash. Relief pitchers, even exceptionally talented ones like the Phillies young arms (Giles, Diekman, De Fratus, etc.), tend to be interchangeable from year to year, injury prone, and basically not something you rely on. Could the Phillies try to trade one of their young talents to get back several talents for the future? It's probably something I'd rather Amaro avoid, but don't rule it out.
10. Could Papelbon finally go?- I doubt this one, but I'll hope. No one wants to pay him and take on his attitude in their locker room, while giving up any kind of talent. The Phillies will have to eat his salary to get any return, or maybe even move him, even after a good year, and with one year left on his deal.

I'd love to see other far-flung ideas like Dom Brown moving (I'd have just cut him), or even things I haven't thought of yet, but I'm not getting greedy. Amaro is a few days from an off-season disaster, again, where he fails to advance this team. I had very high hopes when Pat Gillick replaced David Montgomery for this off-season. The lack of action so far is very concerning.

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The Price of Cole Hamels

The market for Cole Hamels is picking up. Even though that seems weird, it's true. Boston is now more sure of what it can move, and what it wants to spend. Los Angeles now knows what it needs. Others are now more sure of the market in which they are operating. Teams want to get deals done soon now, as merchandise selling season, and the winter meetings, are ahead.

So, if the Phillies trade Cole Hamels, what would the package look like. I'll give you a look at the prospects the Phillies should get back from several suitors, and what kind of package you can hope for:

Los Angeles Dodgers

• The Phillies would start by asking for Joc Pederson, an outfielder who is considered LA's top prospect. The alternative to Pederson is Corey Seager, the number two prospect, a shortstop with a good bat, who some see as a third baseman because of his very solid arm. Normally I'd say LA will go Seager, but the exit of Hanley Ramirez and an overly deep outfield make me doubt it.
• Next, the Phillies would have to get either Julio Urias or Zach Lee, the third and fourth rated prospects in the system. Urias, a lefty, is younger and further away, but has stuff that makes GM's drool. Lee has been highly rated for a few years, and is closer, but the righty 23 year old did not dominate AAA this year.
• Next, the Dodgers would without question attempt to get the Phillies to take a major league outfielder off of their hands. No, it won't be Puig, as the Dodgers will try to get the Phillies to take Ethier or Crawford off of their hands. Perhaps the Phillies would rather Matt Kemp, but I'd basically run from Ethier. 
• Finally, the Phillies would probably take a fourth prospect in this deal as well, looking at the likes of five other pitchers in the Dodgers top ten, or high end athlete James Baldwin III. 
• In short, I'd walk away thrilled with only three players if two of them are Pederson and Urias. I doubt LA will do that though, so if you get Pederson, take Lee, and if you get Seager, insist on Urias. My ideal outcome would probably be a Pederson, Lee, OF'er (obviously I prefer Kemp, but doubt that), and one of the other top ten arms.

Boston Red Sox

• While I was very down on a deal with Boston, now that they've went on a spending spree, their willingness to kick in the extra prospect has probably improved. This deal should start a top pitching prospect named Henry Owens, a lefty who has now reached the upper levels of the minors. The alternative to Owens is another pair of lefties named Eduardo Rodriguez and Brian Johnson. The Phillies should stick on Owens though, as he is my favorite prospect in Boston's system.
• Next is the big position prospect, and there are many options here. Either Blake Swihart or Christian Vazquez are catching options, Mookie Betts could be considered an outfielder or second baseman, and Xander Boagerts could play at either left-side infield position. Betts as a second baseman is the most enticing to me of the group, followed by the catchers.
• Jackie Bradley Jr. and Will Middlebrooks could be considered in a potential deal as well. Consider them against other pitching prospects Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo. 
• Finally, Boston will almost certainly want to move someone from their crowded outfield. I'd obviously love for it to be Rusney Castillo, but that won't happen. You're looking at a Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino, Yoenis Cespedes type of field.
• If this deal is to happen, you have to get two of Owens, Swihart/Vazquez, Betts, and Boagerts, with a strong bias towards Owens being one of them, to me. I could settle for a Owens, Swihart/Vazquez, Bradley, and any of the OF'er package.

Chicago Cubs

• The Cubs are loaded with big time prospects, from Javier Baez, to Addison Russell, to Arismendy Alcantara who play up the middle. They also have Starlin Castro already there. The ability to get a minimum of one of these guys in a deal has to be there.
• Next is the logjam at third base for the Cubs moving forward. Top prospect Kris Bryant is a third baseman, as is Mike Olt, a player the Phillies have long coveted from his times as a Rangers top prospect. The Phillies could reasonably get one of these two as well.
• The Phillies will want Aroldys Vizcaino or Jorge Soler in this deal. Both have made it up to the big leagues now, and would be tough to get. 20 year old Albert Almora, an OF'er, did struggle a bit in AA this year, but could be an option, as could C.J. Edwards, a righty who just had a strong AFL season.
• Right-hander Pierce Johnson and first-baseman Dan Vogelbach could be options for the Phillies as well.
• My ideal deal would bring Russell, Olt, Almora, and Johnson to Philadelphia. My sense though is that Chicago won't rush into that deal early in the off-season.

St. Louis Cardinals

• I would have wanted to start this deal for Shelby Miller, but that is no longer an option. Carlos Martinez is now the top arm available here, and has a big league season under his belt. Marco Gonzales wouldn't be a bad pick either.
• Stephen Piscotty would be the top target for the Phillies positionally, especially coming off of a good year in AAA ball. He would almost have to be in this deal.
• Alex Reyes, a fire-baller, and Tim Cooney, a control freak, are both decent options to look at. Rob Kaminsky is also an option here.
• Randal Grichuk and Charlie Tilson could be options as minor league outfielders go, but for that matter, the Phillies have always liked both Bourjos and Jay from their big league roster.
• My ideal deal is Piscotty, Martinez, Reyes, and Grichuk, but my guess is that if you got the first two, you're looking at Bourjos and one of the rest.

Toronto Blue Jays

• This deal would start with either Dan Norris or Aaron Sanchez, both of whom reached the bigs at age 21, after advancing several levels through the minors. It's a matter of whether you want a lefty or a righty at the top of this deal really.
• Next would be outfielder Dalton Pompey, who also reached the big leagues after advancing across several minor league stops.
• While very young, catcher Max Pentecost and pitcher Jeff Hoffman have tremendous upside and would interest the Phillies. 
• Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman are both MLB ready starters, and the Phillies have been linked to Nolin before.
• I'd be looking for Norris, Pompey, Pentecost, and Nolin from Toronto, which is a steep haul for them, given their reliance on home-grown talent. We'd probably have to throw someone else into this deal to make it work.

Cleveland Indians

• Another team who's been linked to interest lately, they have both a solid system and a young team. They have a log-jam in the middle infield, with 2013 All-Star Jason Kipnis (just 27) coming off of a rough season, Jose Ramirez having taken over the job at short, and top prospect Francisco Lindor at short in AAA. One would have to be in the deal.
• Outfielder Bradley Zimmer was the 21st overall pick in last year's draft, and could be a piece the Phillies want, as could Mike Papi, another high pick last year.
• Lefty T.J. House would most likely have to be in the deal. Cleveland won't want to part with Justus Sheffield.
• Catcher Francisco Mejia and first baseman Bobby Bradley are very young, but show promise. Clint Frazier is also young, and rates out even better.
• Ramirez or Kipnis, Zimmer, House, and any of the kids would make a nice package.

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Based on a Boston Reporter's Reporting, the Red Sox and Phillies Have Nothing to Deal On for Hamels

From my buddy Frank's post on a potential Hamels trade:

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says that the right offer for Hamels simply has not come yet:

The Phillies just want a fair package for Hamels, one of the best pitchers in baseball, and they haven’t heard one. GM Ruben Amaro is often criticized for holding out for too much, but some of the offers presented to him are really not good deals for a team that needs to rebuild. It would hurt the Red Sox to part with at least one among Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Henry Owens, and Blake Swihart to get a deal done, let alone two. So they’d rather steer the conversation toward Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, and a young positional player

A couple weeks ago I suggested Blake Swihart could be a centerpiece in a Hamels deal. 

The Red Sox would be foolish not to at least try a lesser package for Hamels, especially after seeing what the Phillies settled for in exchange for ace Cliff Lee just a few years ago.   The Red Sox already once insulted ace Jon Lester with last year's contract offer, and this offseason's offer to Lester appears to be underwhelming.   At six years and $110 to $120 million, the average annual value would be much lower than Hamels' current deal, which seems to be reasonable given the marketplace.  

I would expect the Chicago Cubs or St. Louis Cardinals to outbid the Red Sox for Lester.  At that point, the Red Sox may be willing to give up one of those players to make a deal with the Phillies.

So a Boston reporter continues to assert that the Red Sox and Phillies are serious about Hamels. Ok, I'll humor the suggestion. The Red Sox supposedly aren't making a serious offer to Lester, which would mean that they will be out on him at some point soon. That would make them a suitor for Hamels again, if you follow this, or don't think it's completely stupid on it's face. Fair enough.

The Phillies have reportedly been making proposals to Boston for a Hamels trade, and I'm sure they've asked for each of the players listed above, and probably at least two at a time. Clearly Boston has said no. Given Boston's reluctance to trade at least two of them in a deal, that should be enough to walk away. Not one of these prospects should be good enough on their own to headline a package for a 31 year old ace who will still be good in three years when the Phillies should be back to winning.

Just for a second though, who are these guys?

• Henry Owens is a left-handed starting pitcher who is 22 years old, and is generally considered between the 30th and 40th best prospect by the rankers. I find him to easily be the best of their bunch, and he would have to be in any acceptable package for Hamels.
• Mookie Betts is a 22 year old who hasn't yet stuck at a specific position for Boston, but hit .291 in the big leagues, mostly aided by a strong finish. If you made him a second baseman (and managed to trade Chase Utley), I see a very plus career there. I'm not as high on him as an outfielder. Couple him with Owens and I could start to buy in, though i'd still not be content. On his own, he was generally considered a 60-75 prospect in all of baseball, or similar to say, Jesse Biddle, before 2014.
• Blake Swihart is a 22 year old catcher who is blocked within his own organization by a young catcher who took over in 2014 instead of Swihart (Christian Vazquez). Swihart had really plus numbers offensively in High-A and AA, but was pre-season ranked in about the exact same place as Betts. He could be a part of a deal, much like Betts, but I really wouldn't take a package where he's the main piece.
• Xander Bogaerts is a 22 year old shortstop or third baseman who a year ago I would have told you I'd trade Hamels away to get for sure. A .240/.297/.362/.660 season later and I see a mediocre player who isn't as good of a future option as Crawford or Franco at either position, frankly. I'd run away from any deal that is centered around him, we're fine on the left side of the infield.
• Matt Barnes is a 24 year old right-handed pitcher who is generally considered a top 100 prospect, but has pitched to about a four ERA over the last two seasons in AA and AAA. He'd be a nice piece as your third guy in a trade, but I'd be livid if you centered the deal around him.
• Anthony Ranaudo is a 25 year old right-handed pitcher who is from Freehold, NJ. He's had some very solid numbers the last couple of seasons in the minors, but hasn't been rated in the top 100 in a couple of years. He'd be similar to Barnes for me.

So, other than Bogaerts i'm not ruling them totally out, but as you can see, none of them jumps off the page the way you'd like to see a package do so for Hamels. Given that the Phillies have probably already asked for two of the "premium" (and I use that word loosely here) prospects in the discussions, and that Boston has probably already said no, I don't see much to do here. You don't keep trolling around and allow yourself to possibly fall for a lesser package, just to say you made a deal. MLB isn't the NBA, and there's no point in "tanking" on purpose unless you're actually building towards a new championship group. Getting a higher pick is basically unimportant in baseball. 

Besides all of that, as Frank said, Chicago and St. Louis are both out there looking for an arm. Both are going to bid on Lester and Scherzer I'm sure, as will others. If either of them misses on those arms, both have much better prospects than Boston that would be better to get. Even if you only got one premium prospect from St. Louis or the Cubs, they'd both be better than what's here.

Sure if you said Owens, Swihart, and Ranaudo I'd be inclined to say yes, but even then, why not wait and see if St. Louis, Chicago, the Dodgers, or any number of other teams could come up with a better deal? Talk to Pittsburgh, see if there's any way to make a deal (maybe throw in Ruiz with them, or the Cubs for that matter), and get a good package. Try some other avenues. 

I might stand in the minority here to say that all of this Boston talk sounds crazy to me. If you believe the press reports, we chose Boston sometime last Summer and haven't done our due diligence in seeking a better deal since. This with a system that is habitually over-rated, and has maybe produced two or three good prospects whom they traded away in the last decade. The Phillies can do a lot better, and I have to hold out hope that Pat Gillick wouldn't sign off on a deal with them. I'm holding out hope that basically the Boston writer is pumping up Boston's odds a bit with his writing.

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You Can't Pull a Sixers With the Phillies: A Realistic View of This Off-Season and 2015

Inspired by my fellow Philliedelphia writer Brandon Apter's post about the Phillies off-season, I wanted to weigh in with my realistic hopes and expectations for this off-season, and what the 2015 Phillies will look like. I've been an advocate for trade everyone, overhaul the roster, and all of that talk really since 2012, but certainly 2013. The Phillies have not done that, and I've criticized them for it.

I think we all have to temper our expectations though. This is not the NBA, you can't deal bad players  to teams who just waive them or take the salary cap space. MLB guarantees contracts, and that means the money committed to the players on this team will be paid somewhere, even as they get older. No one is riding in to take our garbage off of our hands, and the Phillies therefore are stuck with a lot of it, at least for another season or two.

Ryan Howard has very little, if any, value at this point. I doubt we can trade him and get anything at all of value. Dom Brown had six good weeks in the big leagues, and nobody believes he'll ever replicate them again. I'd love to move Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins, who have value, but they have 10-and-5 rights that they earned here, and they don't feel like going. Papelbon might have value on the field, but people don't want to deal with him off the field, even with just a year or two left on his deal. So, this won't be easy. Not at all. The Phillies aren't going to be able to dump everybody. Given that most of the contracts on the books run through 2015 or 2016, we're probably two tough years away.

So what can you realistically hope for? Here's a few ideas:

• Maikel Franco is in the every day line-up- I prefer Franco at third base (and Asche moved to second or the outfield), but the Phillies could also just insert him at first base. Franco played better as the season went on in Lehigh Valley last year, and is ready to be on the team in 2015. Sure, we'll have to live with struggles, but so what? There's nothing stopping the Phillies from giving him regular at-bats. 
• Ryan Howard is out of here somehow- I admire that the team is trying to not release one of the best players in team history, but he is clogging up both the fourth spot in the order and first base. Maikel Franco could play there. Darin Ruf could play there. Chase Utley could play there. He's just in the way right now. While his RBI numbers look good, they really aren't that impressive, and you won't miss them that much, if at all. The team can simply cut him a $60 million check and wave goodbye. Sure, it takes them out of some free agency markets, but if you're not high on 2015 now, why not?
• Sign Tomas- Yasmany Tomas would instantly improve the long-term outlook of this team, and the Phillies have the financial ability to do it. Money is certainly not a problem for this team, and signing a young power bat like this would improve the future outlook by light-years.
• End the marriage to Dom Brown- I know, he's cheap in arbitration coming off of such a bad year, but who cares? Dom hasn't lived up to the hype. He had a great May and some of June in 2013, but really is otherwise a .250 hitter with home run power in the teens, in the best case of scenarios. Oh, and his defense has been bad. He's not just clogging space, he's clogging it badly. The Phillies should virtually give him away, or just part ways, or whatever else works. I mean, it won't hurt anything if they offer him arbitration, but it also won't help anything.
• Only trade Cole Hamels for a king's ransom- Ok, so honestly here, Cole has a legitimate argument to be the second best lefty in club history. You don't just give away ace left-handers to "change" things. If the Phillies do trade Hamels, they should demand a big return. I'm not talking about three or four "good" prospects. The Cardinals just moved an unaccomplished but talented arm for a starting outfielder and a set-up man. There is no reason for the Phillies to not get back both a pair to three A-List prospects and a major league ready player who will be in this line-up. With Boston making an offer to Lester, I don't see Hamels being traded there, but even if it's possible, I don't see enough there.
• Trade Marlon Byrd for decent value- Marlon Byrd did a good job for the Phillies in 2014. He's still a plus outfielder and he hit 25 homers. He did strike out a lot, but that was a small price to pay for this team. Byrd isn't young, but he has one year on his deal, and an option, and there are plenty of teams who could use 25 homers from a righty outfielder on their team. If you get back one top ten prospect from a team and a fringier second prospect, that's fine. It should be doable.
• Give Darin Ruf an actual look- Opinions vary, and admittedly I was underwhelmed in 2014 by Darin Ruf, but it is time to get him 450-600 plate appearances in one season and see what he can do. Sure, Ruf might explode and be a total bust, in which case the Phillies can end their $515,000 marriage to a formerly fringe prospect that showed prodigious power in the minors. He also might show he can give you 30 homer power and .265, with the good eye for a walk that we've already seen. The point is that the only reason we've not given him a chance yet is Ryan Howard and Dom Brown, neither of which should be back. Give him a look, it's literally zero risk.
• Check the worth on Ben Revere- Revere was one of the only players to have a good year on a bad team, but here's the truth: Revere has limited abilities. He'll never have a good arm in the outfield and he'll never hit for actual power. His stock might never be higher than now. The Phillies should see what his worth is on the market, and if they can get something, move him. Besides, if Roman Quinn can show his Arizona Fall League performance was real, he's the future in center.
• Trade Ruiz, if the value is good- If Russell Martin is worth five years and $82 million, Chooch is a steal. If you can get top value for him, it's worth a look. I'm thinking of the Cubs here, as they were in on Martin and didn't get him, and have a nice system. If the value isn't there though, no rush.
• Trade Bastardo- I mean, he wasn't terrible in 2014, but he wasn't as good as 2013. If there really is such a market for him out there, go cash in. We have other guys who are left-handed.
• Just move Papelbon- His numbers indicate he should get us a big return, but no one wants $12.5 million of his mouth. This is a prime situation to dump though. Giles and Diekman are ready to audition for the real job, and the Phillies should let them. Moving Papelbon helps that.

There are things beyond this list that the Phillies could do to this roster, but many of them depend on what you get done from this list. Of the things on this list, I think they are least likely to cut ties to Dom and sign Tomas (only because you can't ever confidently predict if you sign a player or not). In my ideal world, I see a team that goes into 2015 with Franco, Utley, Rollins, Asche, and Chooch in the infield, and Tomas, Revere or Sizemore, and Ruf in the outfield. I'd like to see a rotation of Hamels, Lee, Buchanan, Williams, and either MAG or a free agent or trade pick-up. Giles, Diekman, De Fratus, and the other kids can make up the bullpen. The Phillies can go young on the bench side too and finally let Galvis and Hernandez spend a whole year up.

The real bottom line is that the Phillies should use 2015 to build towards a 2016 improvement and a 2017  new team. This team has virtually no financial barriers in their future, and simply has to figure out how to fit a team around the young talents they do have. They'll have a nearly unlimited supply of money again in a year, and spots to fill. I'm being realistic here in saying they can't gut the whole roster in a year. They do have avenues they can walk down though to see what's there.

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Don't Trade Cole Hamels to the Boston Red Sox

Cole Hamels is probably going to get traded, and it's probably going to be to the Boston Red Sox. Hamels reportedly wants to be dealt. The Phillies need a return on him, and to clear his money. Boston is being reported as a good fit for both. In fact, reports say the Phillies are actively making offers to Boston, which Boston is turning down.

The Phillies must be out of their minds. In the last decade, with all the big trades Boston has made, I think one or two prospects have actually turned out alright. If I had to bet on anyone in their system panning out, it would be Mookie Betts, and I'm not a believer in him. So what would change now? I don't think much would. I'm not sure what to make of Xander Boagerts either, who disappointed in 2014. I know this though- I'm not high at all on anyone else in their system, and certainly not high enough on them to trade them a legitimate number one starter.

I'm sure that Blake Swihart is a nice guy and all, but if he's so good, why isn't Boston shopping Christian Vazquez, especially since Swihart hit AAA. As for Joe Kelly, the jury is still out on him, but he's certainly not a chip you'd focus on here.

As for everything else they have in their minors? They have some nice lefty arms that would make a nice third or fourth piece in this deal, but not anything better than that.

Trading with the Red Sox is an invitation to get robbed. I suppose if we could both get Cespedes and sign an extension with him, it might be worth considering, but even then, i'm a skeptic. I'd consider a deal with Cespedes, Betts, and one or two others from this list, if we could do the extension. Past that, walk away and go talk to St. Louis and Chicago, who have actual prospects, or to a team who will take Howard and some of his money with Hamels, because this is a waste of time.

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The Phillies Long-Term Isn't Nearly As Bad As You Believe

The Phillies haven't been to the playoffs in three seasons, haven't been .500 in two, and are coming off back-to-back 89 loss seasons. Things are pretty rough, and the possibility of selling off this off-season (or for that matter not), means a team that is likely not going to be great in 2015. The Phillies have $132 million committed to the 2015 team now, a team that currently features aging players on the backside of their career. I don't know what to expect for 2015 yet, but in my mind I can see anything from .500 to 100 losses.

Now, the good news. First, the Nationals payroll is expected to finally pass the Phillies in 2015. So what, they have rich owners, right? While that's true, their revenue stream is nowhere near the Phillies, and that means it's taxing them right out of their pockets to pay their currently projected $145 million payroll. Secondly, in the coming years, the Nats will have to start paying out to keep the Strasburgs, Zimmermans, Harpers, Desmonds, and Rendons of the world, to name a few. In other words, those guys are either leaving, or they become a lot more expensive. Top that off with them not reaching the Phillies' 45,000 per game heights in attendance, and you see why that's a struggle for them.

The Braves payroll is also projected to hit $100 million in 2015, based on their current payroll and arbitration. The Braves can simply not sustain that very long with their mediocre attendance and lack of playoff success. Guys like Kimbrel, Freeman, and Heyward will get paid soon, to name a few. While a Braves fan might talk about dumping B.J. Upton, or both Uptons, that's not that easy to do.

The Mets payroll will climb back to $90 million, and this can go either way. The Mets future obligations are larger than the Phillies. Now, a Mets optimist will point out that they are a New York team, and that the Willets Point re-development is coming to provide revenue. On the other hand, it's the Mets ownership. Maybe more pressing for the Mets is that while they are stacked with young pitching, they desperately need some young bats on that team. This will probably require them trading some of their pitching depth, which deflates that advantage. The Mets might be really good moving forward, but they might not too.

The Marlins? Well, I like their young squad. They should be in a good position- until they have to pay any of them. Then they'll blow the team up, again, because their owner isn't committed to winning, and they don't bring enough people in the gate. So while they're talented, let's see a business plan.

With all of that, what about the Phillies? Well, I think they will resolve Howard's situation this Winter somehow, and Marlon Byrd is likely to be traded. I'd sell high on Ben Revere, and I'd try harder to convince at least Chase Utley to take a trade now. I'd go further than that, but you get the idea that I'm all for a sell-off, and actually, I think the front-office finally is too. I'd be careful about trading Cole Hamels, but they already know that too. If he goes, with Gillick back around, I'm sure the Phillies will both move all of his money and get a nice package. This could lead to a tough 2015. It could not.

I think Maikel Franco has to be the third baseman in 2015, despite what the team says about it, after watching him be the International League's equivalent of a Gold Glove winner at the hot corner. Sure, they should find ways to get Cody Asche at-bats, but Franco represents a big piece of this team being good again. Franco, J.P. Crawford, and Roman Quinn all are future high in the order bats if they reach their upside, and all are showing progress. Obviously if the Phillies land Yasmany Tomas, that speeds up the timeline to get back to prominence, and provides a fourth bat. Finding a spot for Asche, figuring out what Darin Ruf is, and moving on from the current outfield are all crucial to the future as well, but all are doable in 2015. While they will pay a lot of money in 2015, the future obligations of the Phillies are about average at this point, and you can see an easy way to rebuild as a big market.

Here's my main point though- even if the Phillies trade Hamels, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, Papelbon, and Byrd, that doesn't make 2015 any worse. They were a 90 loss team with these guys, at worst they're a few games worse in 2015, but free of many of their financial obligations moving forward. Are they really any worse with Franco and Ruf in the 2015 line-up? Are they really any worse replacing anyone on this roster? I will always be a fan of Utley and Rollins, but they played every day and we lost 89 games in 2014. We're probably not much worse, if at all, without them. Then you start looking forward, and see the arrival of some of the higher end prospects, who while not numerous, are very good, and you see hope. Add on the considerable financial muscle the Phillies possess compared to just about anyone in the division, and you can see a future that is really only around three years away, not the five to ten that some people are talking about.

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MLB Payrolls for 2015

MLB Trade Rumors photo

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Thoughts on Hamels, Tomas, Sell-Off, Etc.

My early thoughts on the GM Meetings and Phillies chatter:

• I'm not a huge fan of trading Cole Hamels, and I'm certainly not at all a fan of trading him to Boston. I disagree with my friend Frank's assessment that Boston has good young talent- I see little I'm interested in there. If we're trading Utley and making Betts a second baseman, I could almost swallow him as the main piece of the deal, but i'm not nearly as high on him as everyone else is, and only Bogarts otherwise interests me at all (and we don't need him). If we're going to trade Hamels, Chicago interests me, Boston does not really. If we have to swallow sending him to Boston, the deal basically has to start with Betts, and a pitcher who can make our rotation in the next year or so.
• I am anxiously awaiting the Phillies offer to Yasmany Tomas. I'm not as bearish as everyone else about the Phillies future, and I think signing Tomas could make all the difference. A player of this caliber slotted into our outfield could change everything. I'd go $100 million to get him.
• A complete sell-off, while painful, does make more sense than keeping everyone together. With that said, those aren't the only two options, and the Phillies can go other directions. For instance, trading their aging position players off for pennies on the dollar makes sense, while trading Cole Hamels should be expensive, as his age and contract make him a possibility for the next good Phillies team.
• Howard to the Royals does make sense, and would be one place he could probably be comfortable after his time in Philadelphia. I also still think the Yankees make sense, provided they're committed to him DH'ing.
• I'm okay with trading Jimmy Rollins, but not to the Mets. Just, no.

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Seeing the Phillies Long-Term Status Through Today's Struggles

Think beyond the 73-89 season the Phillies just had, for a moment. Think ahead to a time beyond the contracts of Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, or Marlon Byrd. Think beyond the unhappiness with Dom Brown. Think out to a time in the future when Roman Quinn, fresh off of his current AFL All-Star season, is roaming center-field and leading off. Think out to a time when J.P. Crawford is at shortstop, leading a new era for the Phillies. Think out to a time when Maikel Franco is living up to the hype, the way he is right now in the Dominican Winter League. Now potentially throw on a big outfield bat, like Yasmany Tomas, for example.

If you can get beyond the awful ball the Phillies played in 2014, you can start to smile a bit. No, the minors aren't stacked with talent, but you can put together a top four hitters in your line-up from things either in the system or out there to be had, and you can feel good about it. Is that enough to replicate the 2008 success this team just had? No. But if you think that they can put even a few good players around that, it could be a very good line-up, some day.

Which leads me back to the 2015 team, and the pathway forward for the Phillies. The best thing that the 2015 Phillies can do, regardless of whether they trade Ryan Howard or anyone else, is to sign Tomas and put Franco on the field. No, that might not be the immediate best play to win a few more games, though I'd argue it probably is, but it's better than playing out the string with others, including the incumbent starters. The Phillies are saying they don't plan to move Cody Asche to another position. What? That should be done this Spring. The Phillies should also concentrate on trying out Ruf, Utley, or whoever else they want a look at over at first base. The only area the Phillies should not rush prospects (think Nola here) is pitching. Let them develop at their own pace. The goal of 2015 should be to improve and win games, but they should also see the rebuild from last place as running through the few really good prospects they have, rather than being a quick fix. 

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