Paul Ryan Decided to Run for Speaker, Not President

So Paul Ryan is not running for President. At least he says no. The 2012 Vice-Presidential nominee is not going to enter the 2016 field that is already getting very crowded. He's going to stay in the House, where he is now the Ways and Means Committee Chairman. It's possibly the second best job in the House, and he now has it for the next two years.

As great as that job is, I don't think the 44 year old passed on a run for President to stay on as Chairman. I think he has bigger game in his sights- namely, the Speakership of the House. John Boehner, the current Speaker, is in his third term as Speaker, which might be the end for him. He's 65 now, and would be 67 in the next term, and has taken a real beating on the job. If he steps down, there is not a clear successor. Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy came on in 2014 to take over that job along with Majority Whip Steve Scalise. McCarthy is not viewed as "conservative" enough for the base in the House, and Scalise is taking heavy damage for association with groups connected to Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke. If neither is an ideal pick to succeed Boehner, Ryan is. He's respected and liked by conservatives, and he's politically very savvy. He may make more sense.

I believe that is Ryan's calculus. Paul Ryan will be just 46 when the next Congress convenes. He can be Speaker, and be done being Speaker, before 55 years old. If he wants to be President, he will have further opportunities in the future. He decided to play for a better opportunity right now.