Ok, so last night they decided to go all-in and sign the best free agent pitcher on the market, Max Scherzer, to anchor their rotation. They gave him seven years and $180 million, and he'll turn 31 in the middle of the season, so they have him through being 38. They clearly paid for some "bad" years later to get the good ones now. The word now is that the Nationals will trade Jordan Zimmermann, who is just 28, and has been one of their most consistent arms, particularly in the stretch-run last year. With Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister, and Tanner Roark all also under control, obviously someone has to go with six starters. The Nationals will attempt to replenish the system by apparently trading Zimmermann a year before free agency, also therefore avoiding a lengthy extension.
In many ways, this reminds me of the fateful day the Phillies traded a prospect haul to get Roy Halladay, and traded away Cliff Lee for what looked like a good package at the time (it was not), in December of 2009. The Phillies were coming off of a 2008 World Series win and 2009 World Series loss, neither of which the Nationals have had yet, and they did trade a prospect haul that the Nationals did not in signing Scherzer, so there are obvious differences. The similarities are there though. Both teams are about three years into their window to "win now." Both teams are trading a top of the rotation arm a year short of free agency, both saving money and getting back prospects. Both really lack a top of the division rival at this point and are expected to cruise the next year. Both have stars, Ryan Howard for the Phillies then and Bryce Harper in DC now, that are approaching new contracts (to be fair, Howard then had achieved a lot more than Harper and was also much older). Both had a collection of other players under contract for the next couple of years who formed the core of their teams. The Nats, like the Phillies of then, are going all-in to win. Again, there are substantial differences in the two. At the end of the day though, the move is the same.
It's important to note that the Phillies came up short in the next two post-seasons, despite having the best record in baseball both years. Not only did they not get it done, but they subsequently fell apart, and the prospects they got for Cliff Lee all flamed out. Their system was left in shambles, they never got another parade, and Halladay spent his last two years mostly injured. The Nats may do better or worse with what they get back for Zimmermann, they also may get a title with Scherzer. They could also do the same thing the Phillies did, and with much more disastrous implications- Scherzer is around for a lot more than the four years the Phillies had to give Halladay. The risk is also heavier on the Nationals because unlike the Phillies they don't have a ring yet. Ian Desmond, Doug Fister, and Denard Span are free agents in a year. Bryce Harper has not consistently performed at his expected level yet. Jason Werth is 35 now. Gio Gonzalez is only signed through 2016. Drew Storen has a bad post-season history. Yes, the stakes are high for the Nationals.
Much like the Phillies of December 2009, the Nationals have just went full-risk, and all-in. They've actually gone more all-in financially on their ace they picked up. What they do about signing extensions with other players, and what they get back now for whichever pitcher they trade, could decide if five years from now the Nats are selling players for pennies on the dollar.
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