Don't Read Too Far Into Early Polls

So then, there's this:

A new Gravis Marketing poll in Iowa finds Mitt Romney leads Republican presidential field with 21%, followed by Jeb Bush at 14%, Scott Walker at 10%, Mike Huckabee at 9%, Rand Paul at 8% and Ted Cruz at 7%.

Twice now, Mitt Romney has finished second in Iowa, once to a guy they have at 9%, and once to a guy who's not in the poll. The first time wasn't so close, the second time was razor thin. Now we should believe he's got a healthy lead about twelve months out in a state he tried not to contest in 2012, as the front-runner.

Spare me the cliches, but things will change a lot in twelve months. What I think is substantial here is 45% of the vote goes to "establishment" figures, while 24% goes to the loons. Obviously, no Christie, no Perry, and no Santorum means take it with a grain of salt, but that's probably solid if you're a Republican.

It's also solid if you're a Democrat too. If you believe the next nominee will be Hillary Clinton, having her run against an establishment figure might seem worse than getting to run against a nut-job, but it also means a campaign mostly fought between the 40 yard lines. The reality is, Hillary is viewed as competent, she wins on the issues, and she's actually more interesting than Romney/Bush/Walker. At this point in time in fact, I still don't see a candidate currently up to beating her.