Picture of the Day- 1/6/15

I might not see much more of Hamels in Philly, so.....

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The Price of Cole Hamels

The market for Cole Hamels is picking up. Even though that seems weird, it's true. Boston is now more sure of what it can move, and what it wants to spend. Los Angeles now knows what it needs. Others are now more sure of the market in which they are operating. Teams want to get deals done soon now, as merchandise selling season, and the winter meetings, are ahead.

So, if the Phillies trade Cole Hamels, what would the package look like. I'll give you a look at the prospects the Phillies should get back from several suitors, and what kind of package you can hope for:

Los Angeles Dodgers

• The Phillies would start by asking for Joc Pederson, an outfielder who is considered LA's top prospect. The alternative to Pederson is Corey Seager, the number two prospect, a shortstop with a good bat, who some see as a third baseman because of his very solid arm. Normally I'd say LA will go Seager, but the exit of Hanley Ramirez and an overly deep outfield make me doubt it.
• Next, the Phillies would have to get either Julio Urias or Zach Lee, the third and fourth rated prospects in the system. Urias, a lefty, is younger and further away, but has stuff that makes GM's drool. Lee has been highly rated for a few years, and is closer, but the righty 23 year old did not dominate AAA this year.
• Next, the Dodgers would without question attempt to get the Phillies to take a major league outfielder off of their hands. No, it won't be Puig, as the Dodgers will try to get the Phillies to take Ethier or Crawford off of their hands. Perhaps the Phillies would rather Matt Kemp, but I'd basically run from Ethier. 
• Finally, the Phillies would probably take a fourth prospect in this deal as well, looking at the likes of five other pitchers in the Dodgers top ten, or high end athlete James Baldwin III. 
• In short, I'd walk away thrilled with only three players if two of them are Pederson and Urias. I doubt LA will do that though, so if you get Pederson, take Lee, and if you get Seager, insist on Urias. My ideal outcome would probably be a Pederson, Lee, OF'er (obviously I prefer Kemp, but doubt that), and one of the other top ten arms.

Boston Red Sox

• While I was very down on a deal with Boston, now that they've went on a spending spree, their willingness to kick in the extra prospect has probably improved. This deal should start a top pitching prospect named Henry Owens, a lefty who has now reached the upper levels of the minors. The alternative to Owens is another pair of lefties named Eduardo Rodriguez and Brian Johnson. The Phillies should stick on Owens though, as he is my favorite prospect in Boston's system.
• Next is the big position prospect, and there are many options here. Either Blake Swihart or Christian Vazquez are catching options, Mookie Betts could be considered an outfielder or second baseman, and Xander Boagerts could play at either left-side infield position. Betts as a second baseman is the most enticing to me of the group, followed by the catchers.
• Jackie Bradley Jr. and Will Middlebrooks could be considered in a potential deal as well. Consider them against other pitching prospects Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo. 
• Finally, Boston will almost certainly want to move someone from their crowded outfield. I'd obviously love for it to be Rusney Castillo, but that won't happen. You're looking at a Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino, Yoenis Cespedes type of field.
• If this deal is to happen, you have to get two of Owens, Swihart/Vazquez, Betts, and Boagerts, with a strong bias towards Owens being one of them, to me. I could settle for a Owens, Swihart/Vazquez, Bradley, and any of the OF'er package.

Chicago Cubs

• The Cubs are loaded with big time prospects, from Javier Baez, to Addison Russell, to Arismendy Alcantara who play up the middle. They also have Starlin Castro already there. The ability to get a minimum of one of these guys in a deal has to be there.
• Next is the logjam at third base for the Cubs moving forward. Top prospect Kris Bryant is a third baseman, as is Mike Olt, a player the Phillies have long coveted from his times as a Rangers top prospect. The Phillies could reasonably get one of these two as well.
• The Phillies will want Aroldys Vizcaino or Jorge Soler in this deal. Both have made it up to the big leagues now, and would be tough to get. 20 year old Albert Almora, an OF'er, did struggle a bit in AA this year, but could be an option, as could C.J. Edwards, a righty who just had a strong AFL season.
• Right-hander Pierce Johnson and first-baseman Dan Vogelbach could be options for the Phillies as well.
• My ideal deal would bring Russell, Olt, Almora, and Johnson to Philadelphia. My sense though is that Chicago won't rush into that deal early in the off-season.

St. Louis Cardinals

• I would have wanted to start this deal for Shelby Miller, but that is no longer an option. Carlos Martinez is now the top arm available here, and has a big league season under his belt. Marco Gonzales wouldn't be a bad pick either.
• Stephen Piscotty would be the top target for the Phillies positionally, especially coming off of a good year in AAA ball. He would almost have to be in this deal.
• Alex Reyes, a fire-baller, and Tim Cooney, a control freak, are both decent options to look at. Rob Kaminsky is also an option here.
• Randal Grichuk and Charlie Tilson could be options as minor league outfielders go, but for that matter, the Phillies have always liked both Bourjos and Jay from their big league roster.
• My ideal deal is Piscotty, Martinez, Reyes, and Grichuk, but my guess is that if you got the first two, you're looking at Bourjos and one of the rest.

Toronto Blue Jays

• This deal would start with either Dan Norris or Aaron Sanchez, both of whom reached the bigs at age 21, after advancing several levels through the minors. It's a matter of whether you want a lefty or a righty at the top of this deal really.
• Next would be outfielder Dalton Pompey, who also reached the big leagues after advancing across several minor league stops.
• While very young, catcher Max Pentecost and pitcher Jeff Hoffman have tremendous upside and would interest the Phillies. 
• Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman are both MLB ready starters, and the Phillies have been linked to Nolin before.
• I'd be looking for Norris, Pompey, Pentecost, and Nolin from Toronto, which is a steep haul for them, given their reliance on home-grown talent. We'd probably have to throw someone else into this deal to make it work.

Cleveland Indians

• Another team who's been linked to interest lately, they have both a solid system and a young team. They have a log-jam in the middle infield, with 2013 All-Star Jason Kipnis (just 27) coming off of a rough season, Jose Ramirez having taken over the job at short, and top prospect Francisco Lindor at short in AAA. One would have to be in the deal.
• Outfielder Bradley Zimmer was the 21st overall pick in last year's draft, and could be a piece the Phillies want, as could Mike Papi, another high pick last year.
• Lefty T.J. House would most likely have to be in the deal. Cleveland won't want to part with Justus Sheffield.
• Catcher Francisco Mejia and first baseman Bobby Bradley are very young, but show promise. Clint Frazier is also young, and rates out even better.
• Ramirez or Kipnis, Zimmer, House, and any of the kids would make a nice package.

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Based on a Boston Reporter's Reporting, the Red Sox and Phillies Have Nothing to Deal On for Hamels

From my buddy Frank's post on a potential Hamels trade:

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says that the right offer for Hamels simply has not come yet:

The Phillies just want a fair package for Hamels, one of the best pitchers in baseball, and they haven’t heard one. GM Ruben Amaro is often criticized for holding out for too much, but some of the offers presented to him are really not good deals for a team that needs to rebuild. It would hurt the Red Sox to part with at least one among Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Henry Owens, and Blake Swihart to get a deal done, let alone two. So they’d rather steer the conversation toward Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, and a young positional player

A couple weeks ago I suggested Blake Swihart could be a centerpiece in a Hamels deal. 

The Red Sox would be foolish not to at least try a lesser package for Hamels, especially after seeing what the Phillies settled for in exchange for ace Cliff Lee just a few years ago.   The Red Sox already once insulted ace Jon Lester with last year's contract offer, and this offseason's offer to Lester appears to be underwhelming.   At six years and $110 to $120 million, the average annual value would be much lower than Hamels' current deal, which seems to be reasonable given the marketplace.  

I would expect the Chicago Cubs or St. Louis Cardinals to outbid the Red Sox for Lester.  At that point, the Red Sox may be willing to give up one of those players to make a deal with the Phillies.

So a Boston reporter continues to assert that the Red Sox and Phillies are serious about Hamels. Ok, I'll humor the suggestion. The Red Sox supposedly aren't making a serious offer to Lester, which would mean that they will be out on him at some point soon. That would make them a suitor for Hamels again, if you follow this, or don't think it's completely stupid on it's face. Fair enough.

The Phillies have reportedly been making proposals to Boston for a Hamels trade, and I'm sure they've asked for each of the players listed above, and probably at least two at a time. Clearly Boston has said no. Given Boston's reluctance to trade at least two of them in a deal, that should be enough to walk away. Not one of these prospects should be good enough on their own to headline a package for a 31 year old ace who will still be good in three years when the Phillies should be back to winning.

Just for a second though, who are these guys?

• Henry Owens is a left-handed starting pitcher who is 22 years old, and is generally considered between the 30th and 40th best prospect by the rankers. I find him to easily be the best of their bunch, and he would have to be in any acceptable package for Hamels.
• Mookie Betts is a 22 year old who hasn't yet stuck at a specific position for Boston, but hit .291 in the big leagues, mostly aided by a strong finish. If you made him a second baseman (and managed to trade Chase Utley), I see a very plus career there. I'm not as high on him as an outfielder. Couple him with Owens and I could start to buy in, though i'd still not be content. On his own, he was generally considered a 60-75 prospect in all of baseball, or similar to say, Jesse Biddle, before 2014.
• Blake Swihart is a 22 year old catcher who is blocked within his own organization by a young catcher who took over in 2014 instead of Swihart (Christian Vazquez). Swihart had really plus numbers offensively in High-A and AA, but was pre-season ranked in about the exact same place as Betts. He could be a part of a deal, much like Betts, but I really wouldn't take a package where he's the main piece.
• Xander Bogaerts is a 22 year old shortstop or third baseman who a year ago I would have told you I'd trade Hamels away to get for sure. A .240/.297/.362/.660 season later and I see a mediocre player who isn't as good of a future option as Crawford or Franco at either position, frankly. I'd run away from any deal that is centered around him, we're fine on the left side of the infield.
• Matt Barnes is a 24 year old right-handed pitcher who is generally considered a top 100 prospect, but has pitched to about a four ERA over the last two seasons in AA and AAA. He'd be a nice piece as your third guy in a trade, but I'd be livid if you centered the deal around him.
• Anthony Ranaudo is a 25 year old right-handed pitcher who is from Freehold, NJ. He's had some very solid numbers the last couple of seasons in the minors, but hasn't been rated in the top 100 in a couple of years. He'd be similar to Barnes for me.

So, other than Bogaerts i'm not ruling them totally out, but as you can see, none of them jumps off the page the way you'd like to see a package do so for Hamels. Given that the Phillies have probably already asked for two of the "premium" (and I use that word loosely here) prospects in the discussions, and that Boston has probably already said no, I don't see much to do here. You don't keep trolling around and allow yourself to possibly fall for a lesser package, just to say you made a deal. MLB isn't the NBA, and there's no point in "tanking" on purpose unless you're actually building towards a new championship group. Getting a higher pick is basically unimportant in baseball. 

Besides all of that, as Frank said, Chicago and St. Louis are both out there looking for an arm. Both are going to bid on Lester and Scherzer I'm sure, as will others. If either of them misses on those arms, both have much better prospects than Boston that would be better to get. Even if you only got one premium prospect from St. Louis or the Cubs, they'd both be better than what's here.

Sure if you said Owens, Swihart, and Ranaudo I'd be inclined to say yes, but even then, why not wait and see if St. Louis, Chicago, the Dodgers, or any number of other teams could come up with a better deal? Talk to Pittsburgh, see if there's any way to make a deal (maybe throw in Ruiz with them, or the Cubs for that matter), and get a good package. Try some other avenues. 

I might stand in the minority here to say that all of this Boston talk sounds crazy to me. If you believe the press reports, we chose Boston sometime last Summer and haven't done our due diligence in seeking a better deal since. This with a system that is habitually over-rated, and has maybe produced two or three good prospects whom they traded away in the last decade. The Phillies can do a lot better, and I have to hold out hope that Pat Gillick wouldn't sign off on a deal with them. I'm holding out hope that basically the Boston writer is pumping up Boston's odds a bit with his writing.

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Don't Trade Cole Hamels to the Boston Red Sox

Cole Hamels is probably going to get traded, and it's probably going to be to the Boston Red Sox. Hamels reportedly wants to be dealt. The Phillies need a return on him, and to clear his money. Boston is being reported as a good fit for both. In fact, reports say the Phillies are actively making offers to Boston, which Boston is turning down.

The Phillies must be out of their minds. In the last decade, with all the big trades Boston has made, I think one or two prospects have actually turned out alright. If I had to bet on anyone in their system panning out, it would be Mookie Betts, and I'm not a believer in him. So what would change now? I don't think much would. I'm not sure what to make of Xander Boagerts either, who disappointed in 2014. I know this though- I'm not high at all on anyone else in their system, and certainly not high enough on them to trade them a legitimate number one starter.

I'm sure that Blake Swihart is a nice guy and all, but if he's so good, why isn't Boston shopping Christian Vazquez, especially since Swihart hit AAA. As for Joe Kelly, the jury is still out on him, but he's certainly not a chip you'd focus on here.

As for everything else they have in their minors? They have some nice lefty arms that would make a nice third or fourth piece in this deal, but not anything better than that.

Trading with the Red Sox is an invitation to get robbed. I suppose if we could both get Cespedes and sign an extension with him, it might be worth considering, but even then, i'm a skeptic. I'd consider a deal with Cespedes, Betts, and one or two others from this list, if we could do the extension. Past that, walk away and go talk to St. Louis and Chicago, who have actual prospects, or to a team who will take Howard and some of his money with Hamels, because this is a waste of time.

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