A Post-Byrd Look at the Phillies Roster and Prospects

A lock to make it?
Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr.

Well, the Phillies are certainly in rebuilding mode now. They traded their third veteran this off-season yesterday, sending Marlon Byrd to the Cincinnati Reds for prospect pitcher Ben Lively. Byrd joins Jimmy Rollins, Antonio Bastardo, and Roberto Hernandez amongst the jettisoned, and Lively becomes the sixth prospect added by trade. If the Phillies were direction-less and lost at the deadline, that is over now.

Byrd's trade was largely expected, and leaves just Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Carlos Ruiz as position players over 30 in the line-up. One would guess that Howard, Cole Hamels, Ben Revere, and Jonathan Papelbon would be the most likely Phillies to be traded next, with Ruiz as a bit of a dark horse. If I were a betting man, Utley and Cliff Lee will go too, but it'll be next Summer.

We can't walk around assuming guys are gone though until they are, so I'll move forward under the assumption that what we have is what we have. So, to update my 25 man projection at the moment:

• Rotation (5)- Hamels, Lee, Buchanan, and Williams are in. Beyond that, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Adam Morgan, Kevin Slowey and Wandy Rodriguez would appear to be the front-runners, with Jonathan Pettibone and Jesse Biddle also coming to camp. Since there are only 37 guys on the roster right now, I'd guess Wandy wins the fifth slot, but who knows really.
• Infielders (8)- Howard, Utley, Galvis, Franco, Ruiz, Hernandez, Asche, Rupp. For the purposes of Odubal Herrera making this team, i'm considering him an outfielder. Chase d'Arnaud could make a run here too, as well as Andres Blanco, but I don't like their odds. Hernandez has a guaranteed contract and Asche will give them a more dependable piece.
• Outfielders (5)- Brown, Revere, Sizemore, Ruf, Herrera. One of the reasons I don't think the Phillies are done making moves is that I think Jeff Francoeur will make this team out of camp, but as is I don't see how. I think the Phillies will want to keep Herrera around, given his potential, and Ruf's bat will be needed on this team. This is why I'd keep my eyes on a move that sends Howard or Revere packing next.
• Bullpen (7)- Papelbon, Giles, Diekman, and de Fratus are absolutely in. I'd take a guess that Hollands and Gonzalez make this team too. That leaves one spot currently, to be fought for between a front-running pack of Ethan Martin, Andy Oliver, Cesar Jimenez, and Elvis Araujo, and a rest of the field that includes Luis Garcia, Hector Neris, Nefi Ogando, and of course, Phillippe Aumont. Right now, my money's narrowly on Jimenez, though I'd like to see Martin come in and earn a spot.

It's pretty hard to guess any roster on January 1st, so I won't say i'm confident in this, let alone with a team that is selling off their roster as we speak. The guys who make the most sense to go next- Howard, Papelbon, Revere, and Hamels- have wildly different asking prices and serve varying different purposes to other teams. The Phillies just need to move Howard off the roster and the payroll, to create space. The Phillies and Papelbon just need a clean split, as there's no reason to have such a high-priced closer on such a bad team. Revere makes sense to sell high on, and would open up some space. Hamels is increasingly a tricky case as the off-season rolls on. He's got the highest value on the roster, and it makes sense to deal him for the right deal if it comes. It hasn't yet though, and if it drags on to Spring Training, or even the season, and Cliff Lee is healthy and pitching well, it might make more sense to trade Lee than Hamels when the time comes. They absolutely could trade both (nothing really stopping them), but Hamels will be just 31 this season, and is still very productive, so there may be reason to hold onto him.

All of this leads to the prospects, and the influx of them we've had since last trade deadline. How do they all rate out? After doing some reading on them, I would rate them out like this:

1. J.P. Crawford
2. Maikel Franco
3. Aaron Nola
4. Roman Quinn
5. Zach Eflin
6. Aaron Altherr
7. Carlos Tocci
8. Jesse Biddle
9. Tom Windle
10. Ben Lively
11. Aaron Brown
12. Jesmuel Valentin
13. Dylan Cozens
14. Matt Imhof
15. Severino Gonzalez
16. Victor Arano
17. Yoel Mecias
18. Franklyn Kilome
19. Andrew Knapp
20. Chris Oliver

So my thought process here is that 1-4 is set, you pick your order. I like Altherr and Biddle more than Baseball America does, but they go with our three new prospect arms in this group's top ten. The strength of this system is clearly pitching now. Throw into this group above lefty Joely Rodriguez, obtained for Antonio Bastardo and bringing in a live-arm, and you have a bit to sort out in the mid-levels of the minors, in terms of who goes where. Of this whole group, the only guy I see being helpful this season is Franco, so it's all subject to further revision in the 2015 season.