The Low-Hanging Fruit: Which Republican Seats Can Be Held Accountable in 2016

The 112th and 113th Congress are the least productive two Congresses ever, and the 114th will be even worse, thanks to Republican control. Fortunately, a Congress only lasts two years, and then you get a new one. Democrats in 2016 will need four seats in the Senate, with the White House, and 30 seats in the House to take back control. Where to start?

I have a few ideas in mind for Democrats to make gains in 2016. Do I have 34 ideas? Not yet. These are some good spots to start in though:

• Utah 4: This one will hurt Republicans pretty hard. Mia Love, their media darling Congresswoman representing part of the Salt Lake City area of Utah won her 2014 election with a late surge over Doug Owens, winning by just over 4,000 votes. She ran a lackluster race, and Owens can beat her in 2016 with a good campaign.
• Pennsylvania 8: With Congressman Fitzpatrick retiring, Democrats should take a real stab at the Bucks County seat. State Rep. Steve Santarsiero is making noise about a run, and would be a good candidate, as would Shaughnessy Naughton. Democrats should make a run at this seat in a Presidential year, with two good candidates.
• New York 13: Michael Grimm's retirement leaves his Staten Island seat open for a special election in 2015, meaning the wait isn't as long here. The Republicans are considering nominating Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan, the guy who didn't indict in the Eric Garner killing. Former Democratic Congressman Michael McMahon and Assemblyman Michael Cusick are both expressing interest, while I'd love to see State Senator Diane Savino jump into that race. Democrats would be smart to take a good shot at this one.
• Pennsylvania Senate: Senator Pat Toomey has a solid approval rating, and yet is considered to be on weak footing for a 2016 re-election. Former Congressman and 2010 nominee Joe Sestak is in the race, and he came close in 2010. It seems that a lot of people want another option though. If Democrats can get behind a good candidate in time, this race is a great starting point to win back the Senate.
• New Jersey 5: For a minute in 2014, Congressman Scott Garrett looked like he was in trouble. I don't think that was accidental. Ultimately it was a tough year, and he won over Roy Cho, but this district is a lot better for Democrats in Presidential Elections. Cho and 2006 nominee and Ridgefield Mayor Paul Arohnson both could take another shot at Garrett. I'm personally partial towards State Senator Bob Gordon and former Bill Clinton speechwriter Josh Gottheimer right now (I'd like to see Cho put on the Freeholder Board in Bergen County). I'd expect Hillary to actually carry this seat.
• New Hampshire 1: Congressman Frank Guinta and former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter have traded this seat back and forth since 2010, and with a Presidential year in 2016, Shea-Porter or another Democrat could beat Guinta in 2016. CREW named Guinta one of the most corrupt members of Congress in his previous term, so there's plenty to run against.
• New Jersey 2: Frank LoBiondo was generally seen as shaky, if safe, in 2014's campaign. The district leans solidly Democratic in Presidential elections, but few Democrats have wanted to take on the long-time Congressman. He turns 70 in 2016, and has been in the House since joining in the class of '94. He could retire, which would make it a prime opportunity. More likely though, LoBiondo would have to be defeated. State Senator Jeff Van Drew would be the strongest candidate to beat LoBiondo now.
• New Hampshire Senate: Kelly Ayotte may be regarded as many things, but she's not regarded as safe. A strong Democrat, running next to Hillary Clinton, can beat her. Governor Maggie Hassan tops that list, for me.
• Iowa 1: The former seat of Congressman Bruce Braley flipped in 2014, but Iowa was particularly bad in 2014. If Democrats can get a solid candidate, they can beat freshman Rod Blum, who won a tight race. This is a D+5 seat, and should be flippable.
• Iowa 3: David Young trailed Staci Appel on September 15th in a poll, but won on the strength of a strong Republican Year in Iowa. In 2016, that will be more difficult to pull off. President Obama did win this district in 2012, and Democrats can win the Des Moines and Council Bluffs area seat.
• Illinois Senate: Senator Mark Kirk's 2010 victory was aided in large part by timing- it was 2010. Now I doubt Michelle Obama will challenge Kirk and take her husband's old seat back, but Democrats will have have lots of other good options in Illinois.
• Pennsylvania 6: Ryan Costello was elected to this seat in 2014 without much of a challenge, but it is a narrowly divided seat. In 2014, a moderate Democratic candidate running with Hillary Clinton could get this seat a go.
• North Carolina Senate: Richard Burr has never been loved in North Carolina. Could now former-Senator Kay Hagan return two years after defeat and knock him out? The state should be contested Presidentially, making for a good race.