Thought of the Week- We Haven't Changed That Much Since 2000

One of the popular talking points since Jeb Bush got into the Presidential race (let's be honest, he's in) has been that he "can't win." The Republican base "hates dynasties," he's "too Wall Street," and people "remember his brother's Presidency." We've heard all of these before, with slight variations (it was dad, not brother then.), in 2000 when George W. Bush got into the race for President. On the back end of a Democratic Presidency, and with all of Bush's supposed pitfalls, he wasn't going to make it to the White House, because something was going to stop him. Something.

American politics has changed a bit in the last fifteen years, but the basic tenets are the same. In a Republican Primary, being able to lock down the big-business money is paramount, and the Bush family is good at it. Jeb Bush will secure some major donors, and unite the business Republican community with a mix of religious and military Republicans who want similar policy outcomes. He'll bring back some veterans of both his and his brother's victorious past campaigns, and put together a good staff. He'll run a strong campaign.

The other piece of this is that the further right-leaning elements of the Republican Party will not be able to unite quickly in the process behind another candidate. Some will want Rand Paul, others Ted Cruz, others yet Ben Carson. Jeb will be able to exploit that, provided he doesn't have a strong establishment opponent (which would have to be Romney or Christie, if they can do it). The same thing happened in 2000.

None of this is to say that Bush will win the Republican Nomination, let alone the White House. The internet nature of American politics now is different than his last run for office in 2002, or his brother's 2004 Presidential win. The Republican Party is more conservative than it was in 2000. His brother actually left office less popular than his dad did, which could be a real strain on his campaign.  His business wing funders are less in step with the party's voters (think immigration here) than they were in 2000 too. Even if he survives all of that, Hillary Clinton appears to be a stronger candidate than Al Gore was in 2000, and the left is much different than it was in 2000 too. Lots of things can derail Jeb.

Even so, don't tell me that Jeb Bush "can't" win in 2016. I obviously hope he doesn't, and I obviously wouldn't mind the GOP nominating someone crazier, but I'm not going to rule out something that fairly obviously could happen. There is a real possibility that there could be a third Bush Presidency. If that doesn't motivate you on the left, I don't know what does.